Well after much work on my personal Football ratings I decided yesterday was the first time to put them in to action (Good choice there then, seeing as my ratings are based on Value!)
First Up and we have a Spurs back at 2/1. I was impressed with this as to be honest I fancied it myself (which with hindsight is obviously a fatal flaw in the process)
Result: Spurs 1-5 Man City. We are off to a flyer.
Secondly we have a lay of Newcastle at home to Fulham. I had them closer to 6/4 here so had to lay at the price.
Result: Newcastle 2-1 Fulham. Hmmm, early days and the big one still to come.
Lastly Arsenal. I had them down as a Back at 7/1. To be honest I was feeling quite smug when with a bit of patience and awful team news I managed to hit the Back Button at 9.4. Being a bit of a Mug though (A Bit?) I decided to lay Man United too knowing I'd be gutted if it ended a draw.
It all started so well for the first 20 minutes 0-0 and this is going to be the big one........... Then Man United go 1-0 up and oh well there is a long time to go! Arsenal Penalty! (It would have been so different if they had scored this as it could have ended 8-3) Feck me I am no Arsenal Fan but even I am feeling for Wenger at the moment.
I've only got myself to blame really, as I could have easily traded out for a 99% loss on both the Spurs and Man United games............
Was also cooking a lovely Barbecue in the second half of the Man United - Arsenal game during one of the heavier showers of the afternoon........... All I can say is if you have never had Watered Chicken before give it a try (Kids weren't too keen for some reason!)
Earlier in the day got a decent trade on Jensen Button in the F1, but lost most of the green laying Vettel. Mug!
Only positive was a lay of Mark Foster in the Golf. Unfortunately for him he is becoming a bit of a licence to print money laying at short prices, which kind of saved the day somewhat.
I'll save the disaster that is Poker for the next Post, but safe to say it hasn't been going well......
If you want to purchase my Football Ratings then visit www.iamamugtoo.com where they are available for a monthly subscription of £250. Unfortunately due to previous timewasters there are no Satisfaction Gurantees.
Bit of upside though my each way bet on Plymouth in Division 2 is looking promising as they went bottom of the table on Saturday........................
Justn lastly while I remember Betfred are offering 5/4 that the Manchester Clubs finish first and second in the Premiership - Even as a Mug I can see this is an awful bet after 3 games of the season, who the feck actually takes advantage of these 'Specials'?
Monday, 29 August 2011
Friday, 19 August 2011
Inspired now............
Well, I am on a roll ....................
No bets for me so far this week as I have been playing around with Spread Sheets instead. Enjoyable it has been too.
I've started a Premiership Database (Last two years currently as anything older than that IMO is just fudging the figures) with some ratings which are a formula of my choice. I'm going to test these over the next couple of weeks to see if they are any good or not before actually placing a bet with them.
All this is attributable to Mark Iverson really, and if you want some Data based on his figures, click the link. While using the same Data provider I would imagine, this is my own work.
My Ratings example:
This is not a Sales Pitch by the way, if the ratings turn out to be any good I'll be retiring and disappear. Just wanted to let you know what I was up to really.
On the subject of Spread Sheets I have also found the site Betfair Data and have run some further analysis of the Betfair Matched Figures for Q1 2012 (Following on from my last post on it).
Results were surprising to say the least. At the moment I have only analysed the Horse Racing markets, but I have them showing a matched figure of circa 3,700,000,000 (I must have fecked it up).
If you want to compare these figures against my last post you'll see this is growth of ~20% over the last Quarter!!
Surely this must be wrong? Or has the Betfair seeding started? Fecked if I know at the moment, but with all the posts on the Betfair Forum about a lack of liquidity lately (And Betdaq's increased liquidity) Something looks very wrong somewhere. I'll be getting to the bottom of it as I am now hooked on this whole story. You'd never guess would you?
Anyhow. It's 17.30 on a Friday night and I am not in the Pub (Due to being at a Fecking Farm all day with the family - How many times can you go on a Tractor or say a Rabbit looks cute?). So tonight is devoted to getting Platinum Star on Poker Stars without losing a fortune in the process..........
Wish me Luck!
No bets for me so far this week as I have been playing around with Spread Sheets instead. Enjoyable it has been too.
I've started a Premiership Database (Last two years currently as anything older than that IMO is just fudging the figures) with some ratings which are a formula of my choice. I'm going to test these over the next couple of weeks to see if they are any good or not before actually placing a bet with them.
All this is attributable to Mark Iverson really, and if you want some Data based on his figures, click the link. While using the same Data provider I would imagine, this is my own work.
My Ratings example:
This is not a Sales Pitch by the way, if the ratings turn out to be any good I'll be retiring and disappear. Just wanted to let you know what I was up to really.
On the subject of Spread Sheets I have also found the site Betfair Data and have run some further analysis of the Betfair Matched Figures for Q1 2012 (Following on from my last post on it).
Results were surprising to say the least. At the moment I have only analysed the Horse Racing markets, but I have them showing a matched figure of circa 3,700,000,000 (I must have fecked it up).
If you want to compare these figures against my last post you'll see this is growth of ~20% over the last Quarter!!
Surely this must be wrong? Or has the Betfair seeding started? Fecked if I know at the moment, but with all the posts on the Betfair Forum about a lack of liquidity lately (And Betdaq's increased liquidity) Something looks very wrong somewhere. I'll be getting to the bottom of it as I am now hooked on this whole story. You'd never guess would you?
Anyhow. It's 17.30 on a Friday night and I am not in the Pub (Due to being at a Fecking Farm all day with the family - How many times can you go on a Tractor or say a Rabbit looks cute?). So tonight is devoted to getting Platinum Star on Poker Stars without losing a fortune in the process..........
Wish me Luck!
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
Betfair Analysis
Bit of a low day at work so thought I'd do a bit of number crunching..........
Firstly the bulk of this Data is taken from a thread on General Betting written by The Magician (101) but being unable to post there due to a ban I thought I'd do the analysis on here instead. I hope Mr Magician doesn't mind and if anyone wants to post on there to ask him that is fine? (Of course if he does I will take this down)
First up, the figures:
Apologies they are small, but clicking on the picture should enlarge them for you.
What we essentially have here are the matched volumes by Sport on Betfair for the last 4 Financial Years. We also have the betfair slice of the pie (i.e commission generated from the Matched figure) as taken from the last couple of Financial Results. Lastly and perhaps the most meaningful figure, the percentage they actually make from the Total Matched figure. Make sense so far - I hope so.
Anyone see a pattern emerging with the Growth rates? In fact one could argue that with both the Football and Cricket World Cups falling within the last Financial Year why did the growth dip at all?
Perhaps the most alarming thing for me in these figures is what percentage of these matched figures Betfair actually get a cut on - 0.595% in FY09 falling to 0.539% in FY11. That's a near 10% drop in 2 Years. Anyone surprised with the Introduction of latest Premium Charges now?
Look at the end of the day Betfair can massage the Total Matched Figures very easily (In House Traders, Seeding) and with the level of 'Ping Pong' money it's not hard to understand the Matched Figure growth. What they have to address is the cut they are getting.
If this latest round of increases don't get their 'Cut %' moving in the right direction, their Share Price is only going one way and it isn't up (Buy Back notwithstanding, though it can't go on forever)
Of course I haven't mentioned Poker (falling of a cliff), LMAX (£13M Loss last Year) or any other of the non core stuff they do here, but you can certainly see why they want to transition to becoming more of a Bookmaker because their Core Exchange offering as far as I see is ex-growth (Or very close to it, profit wise). They need a new Geographic Market and they need it soon.
I hope whoever takes over from the hapless Mr Yu has got a Hat with a couple of Rabbits in it.....
Firstly the bulk of this Data is taken from a thread on General Betting written by The Magician (101) but being unable to post there due to a ban I thought I'd do the analysis on here instead. I hope Mr Magician doesn't mind and if anyone wants to post on there to ask him that is fine? (Of course if he does I will take this down)
First up, the figures:
Apologies they are small, but clicking on the picture should enlarge them for you.
What we essentially have here are the matched volumes by Sport on Betfair for the last 4 Financial Years. We also have the betfair slice of the pie (i.e commission generated from the Matched figure) as taken from the last couple of Financial Results. Lastly and perhaps the most meaningful figure, the percentage they actually make from the Total Matched figure. Make sense so far - I hope so.
Anyone see a pattern emerging with the Growth rates? In fact one could argue that with both the Football and Cricket World Cups falling within the last Financial Year why did the growth dip at all?
Perhaps the most alarming thing for me in these figures is what percentage of these matched figures Betfair actually get a cut on - 0.595% in FY09 falling to 0.539% in FY11. That's a near 10% drop in 2 Years. Anyone surprised with the Introduction of latest Premium Charges now?
Look at the end of the day Betfair can massage the Total Matched Figures very easily (In House Traders, Seeding) and with the level of 'Ping Pong' money it's not hard to understand the Matched Figure growth. What they have to address is the cut they are getting.
If this latest round of increases don't get their 'Cut %' moving in the right direction, their Share Price is only going one way and it isn't up (Buy Back notwithstanding, though it can't go on forever)
Of course I haven't mentioned Poker (falling of a cliff), LMAX (£13M Loss last Year) or any other of the non core stuff they do here, but you can certainly see why they want to transition to becoming more of a Bookmaker because their Core Exchange offering as far as I see is ex-growth (Or very close to it, profit wise). They need a new Geographic Market and they need it soon.
I hope whoever takes over from the hapless Mr Yu has got a Hat with a couple of Rabbits in it.....
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Golf and other stuff
Well never did manage to dig myself out of the hole on the USPGA, but managed to keep under my Max Loss of £100, so I guess every cloud etc etc.
Luke Donald looked at one point like he may come through for me, but it wasn't to be.
Managed to not have a bet in The Premiership over the weekend which was good (especially when you look at the results!)
As alluded to on Twitter though I have laid Man United for the Premiership (At 2.84 I think fml) and will be adding to this in due course especially if their price comes in much more........... We've only had one game for god's sake and you would hardly say De Gea has stepped in to VDS's shoes quite yet. In fact he looks like a nervous wreck to me at the moment.
I've also got a bet on Plymouth E/W in Division 2, but after their 4-1 Home mauling at the weekend, the less said about that the better. I blame you Mr Wildcat ;)
Luckily it appears The Geek will not be selling out to Betfair either in the near future. Full Kudos to him for getting the most out of the situation. I'd love to put a Banner to his site on the Blog, but can't fully endorse a product that purely allows you to deal with the Devil that is Betfair. Mind you having said all that I am back on Betfair in part, mainly because I can't get on with Bet Angel or anything else that isn't The Toy. Also I am nowhere near paying 20% let alone 60%.
All the speculation that was rife at the time was obviously spread by Idiots. Yep you have guessed it, me.
Continuing to do quite well on Stars at the moment, but I'll update that at the end of the month as it could all change and probably will.
Still nothing from the Full Tilt Wankers. No surprise there then.
Till next time
SP
Luke Donald looked at one point like he may come through for me, but it wasn't to be.
Managed to not have a bet in The Premiership over the weekend which was good (especially when you look at the results!)
As alluded to on Twitter though I have laid Man United for the Premiership (At 2.84 I think fml) and will be adding to this in due course especially if their price comes in much more........... We've only had one game for god's sake and you would hardly say De Gea has stepped in to VDS's shoes quite yet. In fact he looks like a nervous wreck to me at the moment.
I've also got a bet on Plymouth E/W in Division 2, but after their 4-1 Home mauling at the weekend, the less said about that the better. I blame you Mr Wildcat ;)
Luckily it appears The Geek will not be selling out to Betfair either in the near future. Full Kudos to him for getting the most out of the situation. I'd love to put a Banner to his site on the Blog, but can't fully endorse a product that purely allows you to deal with the Devil that is Betfair. Mind you having said all that I am back on Betfair in part, mainly because I can't get on with Bet Angel or anything else that isn't The Toy. Also I am nowhere near paying 20% let alone 60%.
All the speculation that was rife at the time was obviously spread by Idiots. Yep you have guessed it, me.
Continuing to do quite well on Stars at the moment, but I'll update that at the end of the month as it could all change and probably will.
Still nothing from the Full Tilt Wankers. No surprise there then.
Till next time
SP
Friday, 12 August 2011
Nightmare Day
Well what a nightmare yesterday was.
I'm no Super Trader as has been demonstrated in the past but it is not often I manage to get everything wrong in a single day.................
Thought the Indian Price offered some value before play began yesterday and to be fair it probably did (The problem is I backed it rather than laying) What a shambles India were.
On to the Golf and I managed to feck that up too:
More or less Max loss on Stricker and the only one I have running for me is basically playing with One Hand and not guranteed to start this afternoon. Ok I've got other Greens too but nothing better than +1.
I think the Gambling Gods are punishing me for placing the Bets on Betfair to be honest, but at this rate I'll have an Account worth a lot of money to a Premium Charge Payer.
Brings me on to my last point actually, If Betfair are now beginning to close some winning Accounts due to a change in 'behaviour', if I ever do stop being a 'Mug Punter/Trader' and start producing Consistent Profits (I know not Bloody Likely) are they going to think Peter Webb is now running the Account and close it down? I think they have opened a whole new can of worms going down this road and it will be interesting to see how things develop.
Poker going Ok but nothing special, just played cash so far this month and think I am up a couple of buy ins or so.
Reached Gold Star on Stars and closing in on Platinum Star so at least I am accululating some vpps.
It's going to be a long weekend.........................
I'm no Super Trader as has been demonstrated in the past but it is not often I manage to get everything wrong in a single day.................
Thought the Indian Price offered some value before play began yesterday and to be fair it probably did (The problem is I backed it rather than laying) What a shambles India were.
On to the Golf and I managed to feck that up too:
More or less Max loss on Stricker and the only one I have running for me is basically playing with One Hand and not guranteed to start this afternoon. Ok I've got other Greens too but nothing better than +1.
I think the Gambling Gods are punishing me for placing the Bets on Betfair to be honest, but at this rate I'll have an Account worth a lot of money to a Premium Charge Payer.
Brings me on to my last point actually, If Betfair are now beginning to close some winning Accounts due to a change in 'behaviour', if I ever do stop being a 'Mug Punter/Trader' and start producing Consistent Profits (I know not Bloody Likely) are they going to think Peter Webb is now running the Account and close it down? I think they have opened a whole new can of worms going down this road and it will be interesting to see how things develop.
Poker going Ok but nothing special, just played cash so far this month and think I am up a couple of buy ins or so.
Reached Gold Star on Stars and closing in on Platinum Star so at least I am accululating some vpps.
It's going to be a long weekend.........................
Thursday, 4 August 2011
General Update
Long time no speak.......... To be honest I haven't really had much to say for a change but there you go.
Poker
On the Poker front things have been going OK, been playing exclusively on Stars and despite problems adjusting to their Software initially I now feel I am settling in nicely.
Mainly been playing 10NL without setting the world alight, but mixed in some STTs just for a bit of variety.
I'm running a few buy ins under EV at the moment, but isn't everybody? Also 7500 hands in month is not exactly a big sample. (God I miss Rush Poker, but Full Tilt you can get fecked to be honest, just pay me back my $130 first)
Luckily Stars are doing a promo this month which means even small fish like me can make Platinum Star so should be able to get a few FPPs between now and the end of September. I think Supernova can wait for a bit though :)
I've withdrawn my initial deposit so I'll just see how far I can spin up the $250 left in my account ($100 courtesy of Pokersource)
Betfair
On to the sinking ship that is Betfair, not a lot to say really other than they won't be cash rich for long if they keep chucking money at buying their own shares. I'm sure if they really believed the Shares were undervalued they would be buying more than 50k a day. In fact this week on Monday and Tuesday they only bought 40k a day - Are they saving their money for when they reach £4 each?
Will be interesting to see what happens when the lock out period ends in October. Will Andrew Black start dumping his holding? If he does then they are truly finished.
I did actually wonder for a time if Betfair where the potential European Investor for Full Tilt? Would make sense as a way as thier current Poker offering is dire, but surely even they wouldn't be that stupid?
Punting
Not been doing as much of this as I used to but still like having a go on the Golf mainly, got out of a baddish position last week by laying Richard Green at the right time in Europe, but then had an idiot moment by backing Anthony Kim in the States.
On to the Bridgestone this week and I have chucked a few quid at the following list of players:
Tiger Woods
(Stupid I know but if he is a couple under on the front nine he'll probably trade at about 5/1 I would think.)
Lee Westwood
Dustin Johnson
Luke Donald
Zach Johnson
Still trying to get matched on:
Hunter Mahan
Adam Scott
Robert Karlsson
Alvaro Quiros
As ever I'll be trading this throughout the weekend so I'll try to update how it is all going.
Can't wait for the return of the Football. At the moment I think my main bet is going to be a lay of Man United for the Premiership, but I'll leave that post for another day.
Poker
On the Poker front things have been going OK, been playing exclusively on Stars and despite problems adjusting to their Software initially I now feel I am settling in nicely.
Mainly been playing 10NL without setting the world alight, but mixed in some STTs just for a bit of variety.
I'm running a few buy ins under EV at the moment, but isn't everybody? Also 7500 hands in month is not exactly a big sample. (God I miss Rush Poker, but Full Tilt you can get fecked to be honest, just pay me back my $130 first)
Luckily Stars are doing a promo this month which means even small fish like me can make Platinum Star so should be able to get a few FPPs between now and the end of September. I think Supernova can wait for a bit though :)
I've withdrawn my initial deposit so I'll just see how far I can spin up the $250 left in my account ($100 courtesy of Pokersource)
Betfair
On to the sinking ship that is Betfair, not a lot to say really other than they won't be cash rich for long if they keep chucking money at buying their own shares. I'm sure if they really believed the Shares were undervalued they would be buying more than 50k a day. In fact this week on Monday and Tuesday they only bought 40k a day - Are they saving their money for when they reach £4 each?
Will be interesting to see what happens when the lock out period ends in October. Will Andrew Black start dumping his holding? If he does then they are truly finished.
I did actually wonder for a time if Betfair where the potential European Investor for Full Tilt? Would make sense as a way as thier current Poker offering is dire, but surely even they wouldn't be that stupid?
Punting
Not been doing as much of this as I used to but still like having a go on the Golf mainly, got out of a baddish position last week by laying Richard Green at the right time in Europe, but then had an idiot moment by backing Anthony Kim in the States.
On to the Bridgestone this week and I have chucked a few quid at the following list of players:
Tiger Woods
(Stupid I know but if he is a couple under on the front nine he'll probably trade at about 5/1 I would think.)
Lee Westwood
Dustin Johnson
Luke Donald
Zach Johnson
Still trying to get matched on:
Hunter Mahan
Adam Scott
Robert Karlsson
Alvaro Quiros
As ever I'll be trading this throughout the weekend so I'll try to update how it is all going.
Can't wait for the return of the Football. At the moment I think my main bet is going to be a lay of Man United for the Premiership, but I'll leave that post for another day.
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