Betfair Results and Full Tilt Update

Well quite a day all in all, don't you think?

Betfair Results first and all I can say looking at the detail of their results is they are not as bad as I thought they would be to be honest!

However when you factor in these figures include last year's World Cup and still show hardly any growth, not quite sure how they are going to grow this Year?

Just looking at the headline Profit figure (After Tax) - £35 Million. Is that seriously how much this supposed Betting Behemoth makes in a Year? Maybe it is becoming clear why there is hardly any competition in their space! If the Monopoly Provider only makes £35 Million and these results are considered good - Why would Ladbrokes (who incidentally made over £200 Million Profit last Year) be too bothered about trying to enter it? Betdaq just seem to lose money hand over fist trying to catch up.

The clear thing to me is Betfair will continue down the route of becoming a Traditional Bookmaker (Like Ladbrokes) but they seem to have a P/E ratio of over 30 while Ladbrokes and William Hill languish on about 12-14.

Why is that? Do people seriously think Betfair will break in to the US, China or similar without any competition springing up? Not likely imo. Do they have a 'Killer Story' any more?

Is the new Premium Charge likely to bring an influx of new Highrollers? New Accounts in different names probably to avoid the charges, but new blood? Not likely. For god's sake we all know people who have Multiple Accounts already - If I was desperate to post on their Forums or play Poker on there again I'd just open an Account in my wife's name.

I'll be watching liquidity after The Open Golf with interest.

Another thing how do they employ over 2000 People? What do they all do other than release upgrades nobody wants and generally move the Site from being innovative to run of the mill?

Personally I think Betfair and the space it operates is in has run it's course, so as I said yesterday if the Shares somehow get above £8, I'll be shorting them again.

Anyway enough of that on to Full Tilt..................

I saw the warning Tweets this morning and luckily for me manged to get on and withdraw $100 before the Site shut down:

I say luckily but I would imagine the chances of this actually appearing in my Bank at probably less than 5%. No real damage done but annoying all the same, because I actually enjoyed playing there - Especially Rush. If they do go under, please GOD, don't let Betfair buy the Software, IMO it's the best out there and I'd hate to see it ruined by a bunch of incompetents.

Feck me I'm a lucky boy I have got two sites to whinge about now :)

Good Luck all.

SP

Betfair - PC or not PC?

Well what have we got here then?

Premium Charge going up just before release of the Results, CEO deciding family is more important, a whole host of new hires in Positions where they can collect a Salary without doing much - Is this a Company going places? You decide.

I know I have been droning on about it ad nauseum, but I think they are in trouble,

Obviously the new Premium Charge doesn't effect me, £250k lifetime profit? Me? I don't think so. Not likely to pay 20% anytime soon let alone up to 60% that they have now decided they need to improve the Site - 60%, are you kidding? Improve the Site - Are you having a laugh?

I'm going to reserve most of my judgement until I see the Results, but what worries me is the main liquidity providers on the Markets I look at are going to leave - What happens then? Are Betfair going to start Seeding them? Yet another move to becoming a traditional Bookmaker along with all the Cashback Promotions they seem to be running now.

Feck me but if Andrew Black and Scott Ferguson read this for christ's sake start all over again. Forget the farce that is now Betfair and go back to the roots, I'm sure Ed Wray must be squirming every time they have a Board Meeting.

If the Shares go past £8 tomorrow I am putting the Short in place again, I just don't see how long term this helps Betfair. Get rid of the Courtsiders by all means along with the people you let beat the clock (We all know it happens) but not the very people who are providing the liquidity.

Poker still going OK and I'll upate at the end of the Month, but there might be another post in the meantime on the Betfair results.

Sorry for the ramble, I'll attempt to be more coherent next time!

Dodged a bullet

Don't want to after time but I have had my best Royal Ascot ever....... do you know why? I've been so busy at work I haven't had a bet all bloody week so I haven't lost a Penny.

Haven't got involved in the Golf either which to be honest is lucky for me because I would have been balls deep laying Rory by now. Too late now though, I just hope he can finish the job off, as he has ruined it from a Betting perspective (for me at least).

Tempted to lay the draw in the Cricket, but not sure yet.

On to the Poker and I've still been hitting the virtual felt and things have been going well:

With Rush Week next week and the Mid Year bonus to go though, I still feel I might be racing against time with Full Tilt (Really hope I am wrong as I love the Software), so if the balance gets much higher I'll be withdrawing some more to be safe, at least until things settle down.

Got this £50k Freeroll tonight so that should be fun.

Might have a little go on the Horses this afternoon, so if I Tweet anything you know what to do.

As to the Betfair Short, I am going to leave it for now - Every bone in my Body is telling me to do it before the Results Announcement, but I am going to wait until I have access to the data I need, before being too impulsive. I remain convinced they are over valued.

Back Soon.

Full Tilt Update and an Information Request!

Well still going with Full Tilt at the moment. Was up to $120 yesterday but Tilted a load off last night on Rush. Sit and Go Madness this weekend so we'll see how that goes. Still reckon it will be touch and go if I can qualify for the mid year bonus before busto (Or FTP goes Bankrupt) but we'll see.

Wife not well at the moment, so I am playing House Husband/Father more than Sports Punter currently.

Won £0.58 on the last Test laying the Draw to heavily. Thought I would go for the big one after the First Test, but it wasn't to be.

Noren cost me a few quid last weekend too, why do they never choke when I lay them :)

Anyway on to the main reason for the Post:

I have been trying to find out (without any success) what percentage of a Betfair Market is Trader money compared to Punter's money.

Say you have a Betfair Market where £2 Million is matched. We all know that means it is actually £1 Million has been staked/risked, but how much of that £1 Million would you say is Trader's money?

For example on the Cricket last weekend I would have probably contributed £500 or more to the Matched figure to generate a profit of £0.58 (which is what I pay commission on)

Sorry I am a bit short on time and I know I am not explaining this very well so let me ask a simple question - On a market where £2 Million is matched - What sort of figure do you think Betfair gets to charge commission on?

I can't seem to find the answer to this anywhere.

Geeks Toy and Betfair?

God I hope the rumours around this are a load of rubbish. I really do.

Picture the scene:

Geeks Toy becomes Betfair's Premium Product to access their markets (Stops everyone going on about how shite the site has become and gives them a chance to say look we are doing something about it)

By the way as you now use the Premium Interface we need to increase your Commission/Premium Charge/Start charging Data Access Charge (Additional revenue stream so desperately needed at the moment by Betfair imo)

Three months down the line (after the in house developers get hold of a great piece of Software) you hit submit on a bet and get asked the question - 'Do you want to play Blackjack/Visit the Casino first?'

We all know Betfair Rapid is a pile of Cack, it all seems to fit :(

Somebody tell me I have got too much of a vivd imagination please...............

May Review and Full Tilt Challenge

Firstly May in a nutshell:

Not bad for me, still work to do, but a decent profit even allowing for the £50 I did on Betdaq in the month (Would have posted a screenshot of that but couldn't find an easy way of doing it without listing all of the markets and that would have been a Blog of it's own)

Cliffs:

Barca stuff the Mancs (Superb!) although Fergie's humility after the Game kind of ruined it for me.

Swansea stuff Reading (Ok not technically stuff, but they deserved to win it. What price to come back down next year? 1.2?)

England beat Sri Lanka in the First Test (Quite frustrating because I quite fancied the lay of the draw @ 1.01 in the morning thinking it may be a trade but as usual didn't do it)

Sepp Blatter gets another 4 years (The only 4 years he should get is behind bars imo)

Scholes retires (Obviously not a Man U fan but after the Giggs debacle, the only Man U Player who I had any time for. Good Luck to him, a model pro imo, and there aren't many of them about any more!)

I tend to post a lot of my thoughts on Twitter now rather than on here because it's easier and going forward I am probably going to do that more than Blog. Word of warning if you do follow though for god's sake ignore any Horses I might post up, because I don't think I have posted a winner yet. Strangely enough if I don't post them they seem to run better as you can see in the P&L above.

Right then on to Full Tilt. No idea what is going on there at the moment but I have decided to withdraw my roll, leaving me in the position you see below:

How far do think I can get from here? I'll not be depositing any more on FTP (Going to open Pokerstars soon) but using FTPs and Iron Man medals I have probably got access to $125 in Tourney/Rush Tickets.

The goal is to achieve the mid year bonus, clear it and then withdraw whatever is left.

I'll keep you updated. The spread I am putting on myself is 7-9 June before Busto but we'll see.

As tweeted yesterday, I'll be doing another piece On Betfair shortly and in all probability putting another short in place prior to their FY Results at the end of the month.

Can you believe they have now got a Manchester United Casino Game? WTF?

Although reading this Customer Commitment it would appear they are now coming around to the fact that their business is falling off a cliff in any case.

Good Luck SP