October

Well, sorry not been around much this month, but things are changing in the Sports Punter household at the moment and I've not really had a chance to keep this Blog up to date. Hopefully things are going to settle down in the next week or so and we can get back to normal.

Not going to bore everyone to tears with Betfair today, I think they are doing a good enough job of creating themselves a load of bad publicity without any help from me. Has there ever been a Company who have gone from being so loved to so reviled in such a short space of time?

Poker is going shit on the Cash Tables (If I can't beat 10NL I'm not sure there is any hope for me!) but Ok on the STT side. My time in the spotlight as a Platinum Star on Stars is almost over and I'm back to Silver Star from October 1.

I'll do an update when September has finished, but don't hold your breath it's not pretty. 

At the moment I don't trust any site enough to have more than £100 on there, so my roll is in the process of being spread out over a couple of diiferent sites (Both Poker and Betting) and we'll see how we go in October.

Tried opening a Party Poker Account through Pokernews for a free $50 but they appear to want me to post a picture holding my Passport (with the numbers showing) before approving it as they think my application is fraudulent and I am not a real person. Obviously they can Feck off. It's not like I tried to open it in the name of Sports Punter, otherwise I could understand it.

Edit 17.30 Ignore the above paragraph, not sure if someone reads the Blog, but apprently I have now been accepted without giving them my life history........... Party Poker say hello to another Fish!

Did open a Euro Poker Account for a free $20 however with no problems, so I'll do that in over the weekend I am sure.

From October, I want to get myself back in to Trading more than Gambling so I can lose money slower. You'll probably see a return to screen shots when something Good (Or Bad) happens and a running total of progress. I'll be starting with £100 from Saturday and I'll see where that takes me...... (Reload Sunday morning anyone?)

The Football ratings are still a work in progress as I haven't had a chance to develop them at all. Hopefully that will be done soon.

One Day Rodney!

SP

Premiership 10-12th September

Thought I would publish some thoughts about the Premiership games this weekend along with some stats seeing as though yet again I am not in the Pub :(

First off my Form Table for this season. Obviously it's very early days so you can take some of these ratings with a pinch of salt but it is how I see it so far........

The following table is how I see results from August 2007, using the formula I have chosen to adopt (Again bear in mind Swansea, Norwich and QPR ratings are using a fraction of the data of everyone else so are unreliable in this table)

To be perfectly honest, I am struggling to find any value at all in this weekend's fixtures. A lot of people keeping saying Villa away at Everton, but not so sure I agree.

Apart from the Arsenal-Swansea and Man City-Wigan games, I can see a lot of draws.

A couple of stats that may be of interest to some:

Man United have conceded an average of 11 shots on Target by their opponents in the first three games this season. Their average since August 2007 is closer to 5. Defense not as strong?

Stoke (Home) average the fewest shots on target of anyone else in the Premiership since August 2007, Liverpool (Away) concede the fewest shots on Target when away from home (This surprised me)................

If I find any bets I am going to place I'll tweet them, but at the moment the only thing that attracts me is Newcastle's price at QPR on Monday. Sure I'll be involved before then though............... Actually Man United look too short aswell.

By next week I hope to have my own tissue prices in place so this process should be an awful lot easier and more productive.

Good Luck

SP

PS Scary start with the Betfair short, I placed it and the price went up about 3% more or less straight away. Could be one hell of a ride.

Betfair - The Next Chapter

OK, here we go….. (Warning Long Post)

Well, Betfair released their Q1 update today. I had a quick look this morning and to be honest was quite stunned with some of the numbers. There is something not quite right with this Company (Broken record I know!) and I am determined to get to the bottom of it. Felt I had to listen to the Conference Call before posting, which I have now done.

Please bear in mind this is a FTSE 250 Company, as in they are in the Largest 350 Quoted companies in the UK. I’m not sure how, hence the Post.

I originally questioned the Flotation Value here. Not long before I was banned actually but that is another story.

Since then they have destroyed circa 50% of any Shareholder Value, but again I guess some of these Investment Houses live and learn eh? At least they are now paying a Dividend (Derisory as it may be!) and Buying back £50 Million of Shares – Are they mad?

Let’s look at some facts and figures from the results and the conference call…………….

Betfair Sports Book (Bookmaker) is due to launch in Q4 this FY. Apparently misquoted, Mr Morana suggests this may equate to 30% of their revenues going forward. Are you kidding? Ladbrokes you are not, but even if you were they trade on a P/E of 14 and you on 30 – How do you justify your current rating and Share price? and if you can’t why are you buying back the fecking Shares? I repeat from previous posts there is no growth now in the Exchange story. In fact with the new PC they have managed to spawn a competitor which was never a threat before – Betdaq.

The ARPU has apparently increased due to their focus on High Value Customers and retaining them. They are achieving this by advertising on the Female Beach Volleyball team’s arses and Lee Fecking Dixon – Are you sure? Betfair Ambassadors – Who are you trying to kid?

According to Mr Morana the Q2 and Q3 comparisons should be easy going forward, but Q4 will be the toughest? Why? Is it because by then you’ll have to come clean about your escalating costs? And your completed IT Infrastructure upgrade that no-one has felt the benefit of? Apparently 20% of Customers use the new ‘Cash Out’ facility in-play which rips them off………..  But it is OK they are now doing education for us mug punters.

From a regulatory perspective they are not looking good. Italians already have no access to Poker and Games, they can bet Sports Book via www.betfair.it but that is it. They are paying a Tax on their GP in Spain from July. Germany and Greece are going the same way. If the UK follows suit – where does that leave them?

Oh Yes the US………. No Bloody chance. In California it was acknowledged in the Conference Call there are multiple licences available. Everyone is going to step back to allow that little UK Company to dominate? No I don’t think so either. Don’t even get me started on New Jersey.

On to Poker and they are pleased with their relationship with Ongame. Why? Apparently they are one of the main liquidity providers to the platform. Great. How comes they can’t sort out data feeds for Leaderboards which have alienated so many and constantly use Ongame as an excuse for not being able to provide feedback? BWIN.Party will have no interest in the Betfair story going forward that is for sure which could lead to Betfair purchasing Ongame (Morana wouldn’t comment) – If they do the Poker story is finished. Shit platform minus the traffic does not make a success.

Games – Declining, but apparently everyone who played the World Cup played their Casino, so even though they have been ‘rogued’ more or less everywhere this has nothing to do with it.

LMAX – Oh Please, it a fecking Black Hole and they know it. Shoots of revival apparently!. Stock Market speak.

On to the Exchange (Core Betfair) figures themselves and apparently they are showing growth Quarter over Quarter in more or less everything except Football (Due to the World Cup in Q1 last Year).  Are you sure? Golf looks dead now and apparently the rest is no better.

I am convinced there is Seeding going on, which may indicate why the ‘Risk Sports’ figure has fallen off a cliff.

Not sure if they are involved in the increased delays on ATR and Live Video to please some of their ‘High PC paying in running at the Track Punters’  but you wouldn’t discount it would you?

The whole operation appears to me to have gone from ‘Innovation’ to ‘Desperation’ and for that reason if the Share Price goes near £7 again I am going ‘Short’.

The only thing that has grown from this time last Year is the profit they make from management of Customer Funds. Safe? Well I thought Full Tilt was safe.

Last Point before I go. If you lose money through Online Banking you get refunded. If your Betfair Account is hacked it is your responsibility. Why do people keep serious money on this site? Especially after the DNS hack over the weekend? Are you fecking mad? There must be a reason they won’t go HTTPS or indeed introduce another level of Security. Infrastructure Investment in all the wrong places I would suggest.

Enough rambling from me. Apologies for the poor structure, but after 2 Hours of writing I can’t be bothered to change it around.

I’d love to hear your thoughts………….. Am I Nutter? Are they the next BP?

Poker Update

Well, here we go. Had a rotten month on the Poker..............

The figures you see are from when I started on Poker Stars, but you'll notice the last 5000 hands have been brutal. Even the EV line (Red) is heading in the wrong direction, so I must have developed leaks galore.

Been letting chimps get to me in the Chat which has led to Tilt more than once. Now have it turned off completely.

Just seemed to be a month of set over set, Kings in to Aces, even managed to get Quad 6s busted.....

The only positive is I managed to achieve Platinum Star.

The following table makes me think I am overplaying AK,AQ and JJ too:

Still never mind September is another month eh?

I'm sure you will all be lining up to play me now I have posted my Stats :)

If anyone has got any advice for a poor old fish like me, let me know...............