Sports Punter

October

2011-09-29T13:23:00.000+01:00

Well, sorry not been around much this month, but things are changing in the Sports Punter household at the moment and I've not really had a chance to keep this Blog up to date. Hopefully things are going to settle down in the next week or so and we can get back to normal.

Not going to bore everyone to tears with Betfair today, I think they are doing a good enough job of creating themselves a load of bad publicity without any help from me. Has there ever been a Company who have gone from being so loved to so reviled in such a short space of time?

Poker is going shit on the Cash Tables (If I can't beat 10NL I'm not sure there is any hope for me!) but Ok on the STT side. My time in the spotlight as a Platinum Star on Stars is almost over and I'm back to Silver Star from October 1.

I'll do an update when September has finished, but don't hold your breath it's not pretty.

At the moment I don't trust any site enough to have more than £100 on there, so my roll is in the process of being spread out over a couple of diiferent sites (Both Poker and Betting) and we'll see how we go in October.

Tried opening a Party Poker Account through Pokernews for a free $50 but they appear to want me to post a picture holding my Passport (with the numbers showing) before approving it as they think my application is fraudulent and I am not a real person. Obviously they can Feck off. It's not like I tried to open it in the name of Sports Punter, otherwise I could understand it.

Edit 17.30 Ignore the above paragraph, not sure if someone reads the Blog, but apprently I have now been accepted without giving them my life history........... Party Poker say hello to another Fish!

Did open a Euro Poker Account for a free $20 however with no problems, so I'll do that in over the weekend I am sure.

From October, I want to get myself back in to Trading more than Gambling so I can lose money slower. You'll probably see a return to screen shots when something Good (Or Bad) happens and a running total of progress. I'll be starting with £100 from Saturday and I'll see where that takes me...... (Reload Sunday morning anyone?)

The Football ratings are still a work in progress as I haven't had a chance to develop them at all. Hopefully that will be done soon.

One Day Rodney!

SP

Premiership 10-12th September

2011-09-09T17:48:00.000+01:00

Thought I would publish some thoughts about the Premiership games this weekend along with some stats seeing as though yet again I am not in the Pub :(

First off my Form Table for this season. Obviously it's very early days so you can take some of these ratings with a pinch of salt but it is how I see it so far........

The following table is how I see results from August 2007, using the formula I have chosen to adopt (Again bear in mind Swansea, Norwich and QPR ratings are using a fraction of the data of everyone else so are unreliable in this table)

To be perfectly honest, I am struggling to find any value at all in this weekend's fixtures. A lot of people keeping saying Villa away at Everton, but not so sure I agree.

Apart from the Arsenal-Swansea and Man City-Wigan games, I can see a lot of draws.

A couple of stats that may be of interest to some:

Man United have conceded an average of 11 shots on Target by their opponents in the first three games this season. Their average since August 2007 is closer to 5. Defense not as strong?

Stoke (Home) average the fewest shots on target of anyone else in the Premiership since August 2007, Liverpool (Away) concede the fewest shots on Target when away from home (This surprised me)................

If I find any bets I am going to place I'll tweet them, but at the moment the only thing that attracts me is Newcastle's price at QPR on Monday. Sure I'll be involved before then though............... Actually Man United look too short aswell.

By next week I hope to have my own tissue prices in place so this process should be an awful lot easier and more productive.

Good Luck

SP

PS Scary start with the Betfair short, I placed it and the price went up about 3% more or less straight away. Could be one hell of a ride.

Betfair - The Next Chapter

2011-09-06T20:30:00.000+01:00

OK, here we go….. (Warning Long Post)

Well, Betfair released their Q1 update today. I had a quicklook this morning and to be honest was quite stunned with some of the numbers.There is something not quite right with this Company (Broken record I know!)and I am determined to get to the bottom of it. Felt I had to listen to theConference Call before posting, which I have now done.

Please bear in mind this is a FTSE 250 Company, as in theyare in the Largest 350 Quoted companies in the UK. I’m not sure how, hence thePost.

I originally questioned the Flotation Value here.Not long before I was banned actually but that is another story.

Since then they have destroyed circa 50% of any ShareholderValue, but again I guess some of these Investment Houses live and learn eh? Atleast they are now paying a Dividend (Derisory as it may be!) and Buying back£50 Million of Shares – Are they mad?

Let’s look at some facts and figures from the results andthe conference call…………….

Betfair Sports Book (Bookmaker) is due to launch in Q4 thisFY. Apparently misquoted, Mr Morana suggests this may equate to 30% of theirrevenues going forward. Are you kidding? Ladbrokes you are not, but even if youwere they trade on a P/E of 14 and you on 30 – How do you justify your currentrating and Share price? and if you can’t why are you buying back the feckingShares? I repeat from previous posts there is no growth now in the Exchangestory. In fact with the new PC they have managed to spawn a competitor whichwas never a threat before – Betdaq.

The ARPU has apparently increased due to their focus on HighValue Customers and retaining them. They are achieving this by advertising onthe Female Beach Volleyball team’s arses and Lee Fecking Dixon – Are you sure?Betfair Ambassadors – Who are you trying to kid?

According to Mr Morana the Q2 and Q3 comparisons should beeasy going forward, but Q4 will be the toughest? Why? Is it because by then you’llhave to come clean about your escalating costs? And your completed ITInfrastructure upgrade that no-one has felt the benefit of? Apparently 20% ofCustomers use the new ‘Cash Out’ facility in-play which rips them off……….. But it is OK they are now doing education forus mug punters.

From a regulatory perspective they are not looking good.Italians already have no access to Poker and Games, they can bet Sports Bookvia www.betfair.it but that is it. They arepaying a Tax on their GP in Spain from July. Germany and Greece are going thesame way. If the UK follows suit – where does that leave them?

Oh Yes the US………. No Bloody chance. In California it wasacknowledged in the Conference Call there are multiple licences available.Everyone is going to step back to allow that little UK Company to dominate? NoI don’t think so either. Don’t even get me started on New Jersey.

On to Poker and they are pleased with their relationshipwith Ongame. Why? Apparently they are one of the main liquidity providers tothe platform. Great. How comes they can’t sort out data feeds for Leaderboardswhich have alienated so many and constantly use Ongame as an excuse for not beingable to provide feedback? BWIN.Party will have no interest in the Betfair storygoing forward that is for sure which could lead to Betfair purchasing Ongame(Morana wouldn’t comment) – If they do the Poker story is finished. Shitplatform minus the traffic does not make a success.

Games – Declining, but apparently everyone who played theWorld Cup played their Casino, so even though they have been ‘rogued’ more orless everywhere this has nothing to do with it.

LMAX – Oh Please, it a fecking Black Hole and they know it.Shoots of revival apparently!. Stock Market speak.

On to the Exchange (Core Betfair) figures themselves andapparently they are showing growth Quarter over Quarter in more or lesseverything except Football (Due to the World Cup in Q1 last Year). Are you sure? Golf looks dead now andapparently the rest is no better.

I am convinced there is Seeding going on, which may indicatewhy the ‘Risk Sports’ figure has fallen off a cliff.

Not sure if they are involved in the increased delays on ATRand Live Video to please some of their ‘High PC paying in running at the TrackPunters’ but you wouldn’t discount itwould you?

The whole operation appears to me to have gone from ‘Innovation’to ‘Desperation’ and for that reason if the Share Price goes near £7 again I amgoing ‘Short’.

The only thing that has grown from this time last Year isthe profit they make from management of Customer Funds. Safe? Well I thoughtFull Tilt was safe.

Last Point before I go. If you lose money through OnlineBanking you get refunded. If your Betfair Account is hacked it is yourresponsibility. Why do people keep serious money on this site? Especially afterthe DNS hack over the weekend? Are you fecking mad? There must be a reason theywon’t go HTTPS or indeed introduce another level of Security. InfrastructureInvestment in all the wrong places I would suggest.

Enough rambling from me. Apologies for the poor structure,but after 2 Hours of writing I can’t be bothered to change it around.

I’d love to hear your thoughts………….. Am INutter? Are they the next BP?

Poker Update

2011-09-02T15:34:00.000+01:00

Well, here we go. Had a rotten month on the Poker..............

The figures you see are from when I started on Poker Stars, but you'll notice the last 5000 hands have been brutal. Even the EV line (Red) is heading in the wrong direction, so I must have developed leaks galore.

Been letting chimps get to me in the Chat which has led to Tilt more than once. Now have it turned off completely.

Just seemed to be a month of set over set, Kings in to Aces, even managed to get Quad 6s busted.....

The only positive is I managed to achieve Platinum Star.

The following table makes me think I am overplaying AK,AQ and JJ too:

Still never mind September is another month eh?

I'm sure you will all be lining up to play me now I have posted my Stats :)

If anyone has got any advice for a poor old fish like me, let me know...............

Bloody Sunday

2011-08-29T09:57:00.001+01:00

Well after much work on my personal Football ratings I decided yesterday was the first time to put them in to action (Good choice there then, seeing as my ratings are based on Value!)

First Up and we have a Spurs back at 2/1. I was impressed with this as to be honest I fancied it myself (which with hindsight is obviously a fatal flaw in the process)

Result: Spurs 1-5 Man City. We are off to a flyer.

Secondly we have a lay of Newcastle at home to Fulham. I had them closer to 6/4 here so had to lay at the price.

Result: Newcastle 2-1 Fulham. Hmmm, early days and the big one still to come.

Lastly Arsenal. I had them down as a Back at 7/1. To be honest I was feeling quite smug when with a bit of patience and awful team news I managed to hit the Back Button at 9.4. Being a bit of a Mug though (A Bit?) I decided to lay Man United too knowing I'd be gutted if it ended a draw.

It all started so well for the first 20 minutes 0-0 and this is going to be the big one........... Then Man United go 1-0 up and oh well there is a long time to go! Arsenal Penalty! (It would have been so different if they had scored this as it could have ended 8-3) Feck me I am no Arsenal Fan but even I am feeling for Wenger at the moment.

I've only got myself to blame really, as I could have easily traded out for a 99% loss on both the Spurs and Man United games............

Was also cooking a lovely Barbecue in the second half of the Man United - Arsenal game during one of the heavier showers of the afternoon........... All I can say is if you have never had Watered Chicken before give it a try (Kids weren't too keen for some reason!)

Earlier in the day got a decent trade on Jensen Button in the F1, but lost most of the green laying Vettel. Mug!

Only positive was a lay of Mark Foster in the Golf. Unfortunately for him he is becoming a bit of a licence to print money laying at short prices, which kind of saved the day somewhat.

I'll save the disaster that is Poker for the next Post, but safe to say it hasn't been going well......

If you want to purchase my Football Ratings then visit www.iamamugtoo.com where they are available for a monthly subscription of £250. Unfortunately due to previous timewasters there are no Satisfaction Gurantees.

Bit of upside though my each way bet on Plymouth in Division 2 is looking promising as they went bottom of the table on Saturday........................

Justn lastly while I remember Betfred are offering 5/4 that the Manchester Clubs finish first and second in the Premiership - Even as a Mug I can see this is an awful bet after 3 games of the season, who the feck actually takes advantage of these 'Specials'?

Inspired now............

2011-08-19T17:28:00.000+01:00

Well, I am on a roll ....................

No bets for me so far this week as I have been playing around with Spread Sheets instead. Enjoyable it has been too.

I've started a Premiership Database (Last two years currently as anything older than that IMO is just fudging the figures) with some ratings which are a formula of my choice. I'm going to test these over the next couple of weeks to see if they are any good or not before actually placing a bet with them.

All this is attributable to Mark Iverson really, and if you want some Data based on his figures, click the link. While using the same Data provider I would imagine, this is my own work.

My Ratings example:

This is not a Sales Pitch by the way, if the ratings turn out to be any good I'll be retiring and disappear. Just wanted to let you know what I was up to really.

On the subject of Spread Sheets I have also found the site Betfair Data and have run some further analysis of the Betfair Matched Figures for Q1 2012 (Following on from my last post on it).

Results were surprising to say the least. At the moment I have only analysed the Horse Racing markets, but I have them showing a matched figure of circa 3,700,000,000 (I must have fecked it up).

If you want to compare these figures against my last post you'll see this is growth of ~20% over the last Quarter!!

Surely this must be wrong? Or has the Betfair seeding started? Fecked if I know at the moment, but with all the posts on the Betfair Forum about a lack of liquidity lately (And Betdaq's increased liquidity) Something looks very wrong somewhere. I'll be getting to the bottom of it as I am now hooked on this whole story. You'd never guess would you?

Anyhow. It's 17.30 on a Friday night and I am not in the Pub (Due to being at a Fecking Farm all day with the family - How many times can you go on a Tractor or say a Rabbit looks cute?). So tonight is devoted to getting Platinum Star on Poker Stars without losing a fortune in the process..........

Wish me Luck!

Betfair Analysis

2011-08-17T17:26:00.000+01:00

Bit of a low day at work so thought I'd do a bit of number crunching..........

Firstly the bulk of this Data is taken from a thread on General Betting written by The Magician (101) but being unable to post there due to a ban I thought I'd do the analysis on here instead. I hope Mr Magician doesn't mind and if anyone wants to post on there to ask him that is fine? (Of course if he does I will take this down)

First up, the figures:

Apologies they are small, but clicking on the picture should enlarge them for you.

What we essentially have here are the matched volumes by Sport on Betfair for the last 4 Financial Years. We also have the betfair slice of the pie (i.e commission generated from the Matched figure) as taken from the last couple of Financial Results. Lastly and perhaps the most meaningful figure, the percentage they actually make from the Total Matched figure. Make sense so far - I hope so.

Anyone see a pattern emerging with the Growth rates? In fact one could argue that with both the Football and Cricket World Cups falling within the last Financial Year why did the growth dip at all?

Perhaps the most alarming thing for me in these figures is what percentage of these matched figures Betfair actually get a cut on - 0.595% in FY09 falling to 0.539% in FY11. That's a near 10% drop in 2 Years. Anyone surprised with the Introduction of latest Premium Charges now?

Look at the end of the day Betfair can massage the Total Matched Figures very easily (In House Traders, Seeding) and with the level of 'Ping Pong' money it's not hard to understand the Matched Figure growth. What they have to address is the cut they are getting.

If this latest round of increases don't get their 'Cut %' moving in the right direction, their Share Price is only going one way and it isn't up (Buy Back notwithstanding, though it can't go on forever)

Of course I haven't mentioned Poker (falling of a cliff), LMAX (£13M Loss last Year) or any other of the non core stuff they do here, but you can certainly see why they want to transition to becoming more of a Bookmaker because their Core Exchange offering as far as I see is ex-growth (Or very close to it, profit wise). They need a new Geographic Market and they need it soon.

I hope whoever takes over from the hapless Mr Yu has got a Hat with a couple of Rabbits in it.....

Golf and other stuff

2011-08-16T16:14:00.000+01:00

Well never did manage to dig myself out of the hole on the USPGA, but managed to keep under my Max Loss of £100, so I guess every cloud etc etc.

Luke Donald looked at one point like he may come through for me, but it wasn't to be.

Managed to not have a bet in The Premiership over the weekend which was good (especially when you look at the results!)

As alluded to on Twitter though I have laid Man United for the Premiership (At 2.84 I think fml) and will be adding to this in due course especially if their price comes in much more........... We've only had one game for god's sake and you would hardly say De Gea has stepped in to VDS's shoes quite yet. In fact he looks like a nervous wreck to me at the moment.

I've also got a bet on Plymouth E/W in Division 2, but after their 4-1 Home mauling at the weekend, the less said about that the better. I blame you Mr Wildcat ;)

Luckily it appears The Geek will not be selling out to Betfair either in the near future. Full Kudos to him for getting the most out of the situation. I'd love to put a Banner to his site on the Blog, but can't fully endorse a product that purely allows you to deal with the Devil that is Betfair. Mind you having said all that I am back on Betfair in part, mainly because I can't get on with Bet Angel or anything else that isn't The Toy. Also I am nowhere near paying 20% let alone 60%.

All the speculation that was rife at the time was obviously spread by Idiots. Yep you have guessed it, me.

Continuing to do quite well on Stars at the moment, but I'll update that at the end of the month as it could all change and probably will.

Still nothing from the Full Tilt Wankers. No surprise there then.

Till next time

SP

Nightmare Day

2011-08-12T08:55:00.000+01:00

Well what a nightmare yesterday was.

I'm no Super Trader as has been demonstrated in the past but it is not often I manage to get everything wrong in a single day.................

Thought the Indian Price offered some value before play began yesterday and to be fair it probably did (The problem is I backed it rather than laying) What a shambles India were.

On to the Golf and I managed to feck that up too:

More or less Max loss on Stricker and the only one I have running for me is basically playing with One Hand and not guranteed to start this afternoon. Ok I've got other Greens too but nothing better than +1.

I think the Gambling Gods are punishing me for placing the Bets on Betfair to be honest, but at this rate I'll have an Account worth a lot of money to a Premium Charge Payer.

Brings me on to my last point actually, If Betfair are now beginning to close some winning Accounts due to a change in 'behaviour', if I ever do stop being a 'Mug Punter/Trader' and start producing Consistent Profits (I know not Bloody Likely) are they going to think Peter Webb is now running the Account and close it down? I think they have opened a whole new can of worms going down this road and it will be interesting to see how things develop.

Poker going Ok but nothing special, just played cash so far this month and think I am up a couple of buy ins or so.

Reached Gold Star on Stars and closing in on Platinum Star so at least I am accululating some vpps.

It's going to be a long weekend.........................

General Update

2011-08-04T12:37:00.000+01:00

Long time no speak.......... To be honest I haven't really had much to say for a change but there you go.

Poker

On the Poker front things have been going OK, been playing exclusively on Stars and despite problems adjusting to their Software initially I now feel I am settling in nicely.

Mainly been playing 10NL without setting the world alight, but mixed in some STTs just for a bit of variety.

I'm running a few buy ins under EV at the moment, but isn't everybody? Also 7500 hands in month is not exactly a big sample. (God I miss Rush Poker, but Full Tilt you can get fecked to be honest, just pay me back my $130 first)

Luckily Stars are doing a promo this month which means even small fish like me can make Platinum Star so should be able to get a few FPPs between now and the end of September. I think Supernova can wait for a bit though :)

I've withdrawn my initial deposit so I'll just see how far I can spin up the $250 left in my account ($100 courtesy of Pokersource)

Betfair

On to the sinking ship that is Betfair, not a lot to say really other than they won't be cash rich for long if they keep chucking money at buying their own shares. I'm sure if they really believed the Shares were undervalued they would be buying more than 50k a day. In fact this week on Monday and Tuesday they only bought 40k a day - Are they saving their money for when they reach £4 each?

Will be interesting to see what happens when the lock out period ends in October. Will Andrew Black start dumping his holding? If he does then they are truly finished.

I did actually wonder for a time if Betfair where the potential European Investor for Full Tilt? Would make sense as a way as thier current Poker offering is dire, but surely even they wouldn't be that stupid?

Punting

Not been doing as much of this as I used to but still like having a go on the Golf mainly, got out of a baddish position last week by laying Richard Green at the right time in Europe, but then had an idiot moment by backing Anthony Kim in the States.

On to the Bridgestone this week and I have chucked a few quid at the following list of players:

Tiger Woods

(Stupid I know but if he is a couple under on the front nine he'll probably trade at about 5/1 I would think.)

Lee Westwood
Dustin Johnson
Luke Donald
Zach Johnson

Still trying to get matched on:

Hunter Mahan
Adam Scott
Robert Karlsson
Alvaro Quiros

As ever I'll be trading this throughout the weekend so I'll try to update how it is all going.

Can't wait for the return of the Football. At the moment I think my main bet is going to be a lay of Man United for the Premiership, but I'll leave that post for another day.

The Open - Position Update

2011-07-16T09:13:00.000+01:00

Nothing spectacular for 2 days work so far and hoping I can improve this today.

I've had more fun and some interesting conversations on Twitter over the last couple of days. Yep, mainly Betfair related (I just can't help myself!)

Could this be the last liquid market we see on the Golf for a while? If the big boys on the Golf Forum are to be believed it may be. Time will tell.

Roll on this afternoon and if Noh could go low, or Ed Molinari could go barmy, may be a decent win here after all.

Moving On..............

2011-07-06T16:58:00.000+01:00

Ok thought it was about time I bought some perspective back to this Blog.

Is anything I say here going to change what other people think? No.

Do I really care if Betfair go under or go on to become bigger than BP? Will it effect me? No.

No more talk of Premium Charge, Results or bollocks like that from me, this will get played out by the big boys and while I'll still be following the story with interest I won't be posting any more about it.

Back to talking about more Sport and less Politics for me.

Hopefully this will start at the weekend but if not definitely for The Open, which I can't wait for. Already got next Thurday and Friday blocked out in the Diary.

For anyone that cares, the withdrawal from Full Tilt obviously never turned up (Surprise, surprise!) but personally I think they will be back in some form before the weekend. Whether these funds are back in my Account is a whole different story.

In the meantime, I have been playing around on Stars (Very badly) and while I initially hated it, slowly but surely it's winning me over (Even though I am getting Crushed!).

My only complaint now is after the joys of Rush and Super Turbo STT's on FTP, everything just seems to happen so fecking slowly on Stars........................

Oh and just for completeness June was not a good month, probably ended up dropping about £200 across multiple sites so let's hope July is better.

Betfair Results and Full Tilt Update

2011-06-29T18:39:00.000+01:00

Well quite a day all in all, don't you think?

Betfair Results first and all I can say looking at the detail of their results is they are not as bad as I thought they would be to be honest!

However when you factor in these figures include last year's World Cup and still show hardly any growth, not quite sure how they are going to grow this Year?

Just looking at the headline Profit figure (After Tax) - £35 Million. Is that seriously how much this supposed Betting Behemoth makes in a Year? Maybe it is becoming clear why there is hardly any competition in their space! If the Monopoly Provider only makes £35 Million and these results are considered good - Why would Ladbrokes (who incidentally made over £200 Million Profit last Year) be too bothered about trying to enter it? Betdaq just seem to lose money hand over fist trying to catch up.

The clear thing to me is Betfair will continue down the route of becoming a Traditional Bookmaker (Like Ladbrokes) but they seem to have a P/E ratio of over 30 while Ladbrokes and William Hill languish on about 12-14.

Why is that? Do people seriously think Betfair will break in to the US, China or similar without any competition springing up? Not likely imo. Do they have a 'Killer Story' any more?

Is the new Premium Charge likely to bring an influx of new Highrollers? New Accounts in different names probably to avoid the charges, but new blood? Not likely. For god's sake we all know people who have Multiple Accounts already - If I was desperate to post on their Forums or play Poker on there again I'd just open an Account in my wife's name.

I'll be watching liquidity after The Open Golf with interest.

Another thing how do they employ over 2000 People? What do they all do other than release upgrades nobody wants and generally move the Site from being innovative to run of the mill?

Personally I think Betfair and the space it operates is in has run it's course, so as I said yesterday if the Shares somehow get above £8, I'll be shorting them again.

Anyway enough of that on to Full Tilt..................

I saw the warning Tweets this morning and luckily for me manged to get on and withdraw $100 before the Site shut down:

I say luckily but I would imagine the chances of this actually appearing in my Bank at probably less than 5%. No real damage done but annoying all the same, because I actually enjoyed playing there - Especially Rush. If they do go under, please GOD, don't let Betfair buy the Software, IMO it's the best out there and I'd hate to see it ruined by a bunch of incompetents.

Feck me I'm a lucky boy I have got two sites to whinge about now :)

Good Luck all.

SP

Betfair - PC or not PC?

2011-06-28T20:19:00.000+01:00

Well what have we got here then?

Premium Charge going up just before release of the Results, CEO deciding family is more important, a whole host of new hires in Positions where they can collect a Salary without doing much - Is this a Company going places? You decide.

I know I have been droning on about it ad nauseum, but I think they are in trouble,

Obviously the new Premium Charge doesn't effect me, £250k lifetime profit? Me? I don't think so. Not likely to pay 20% anytime soon let alone up to 60% that they have now decided they need to improve the Site - 60%, are you kidding? Improve the Site - Are you having a laugh?

I'm going to reserve most of my judgement until I see the Results, but what worries me is the main liquidity providers on the Markets I look at are going to leave - What happens then? Are Betfair going to start Seeding them? Yet another move to becoming a traditional Bookmaker along with all the Cashback Promotions they seem to be running now.

Feck me but if Andrew Black and Scott Ferguson read this for christ's sake start all over again. Forget the farce that is now Betfair and go back to the roots, I'm sure Ed Wray must be squirming every time they have a Board Meeting.

If the Shares go past £8 tomorrow I am putting the Short in place again, I just don't see how long term this helps Betfair. Get rid of the Courtsiders by all means along with the people you let beat the clock (We all know it happens) but not the very people who are providing the liquidity.

Poker still going OK and I'll upate at the end of the Month, but there might be another post in the meantime on the Betfair results.

Sorry for the ramble, I'll attempt to be more coherent next time!

Dodged a bullet

2011-06-18T12:57:00.000+01:00

Don't want to after time but I have had my best Royal Ascot ever....... do you know why? I've been so busy at work I haven't had a bet all bloody week so I haven't lost a Penny.

Haven't got involved in the Golf either which to be honest is lucky for me because I would have been balls deep laying Rory by now. Too late now though, I just hope he can finish the job off, as he has ruined it from a Betting perspective (for me at least).

Tempted to lay the draw in the Cricket, but not sure yet.

On to the Poker and I've still been hitting the virtual felt and things have been going well:

With Rush Week next week and the Mid Year bonus to go though, I still feel I might be racing against time with Full Tilt (Really hope I am wrong as I love the Software), so if the balance gets much higher I'll be withdrawing some more to be safe, at least until things settle down.

Got this £50k Freeroll tonight so that should be fun.

Might have a little go on the Horses this afternoon, so if I Tweet anything you know what to do.

As to the Betfair Short, I am going to leave it for now - Every bone in my Body is telling me to do it before the Results Announcement, but I am going to wait until I have access to the data I need, before being too impulsive. I remain convinced they are over valued.

Back Soon.

Full Tilt Update and an Information Request!

2011-06-10T12:32:00.000+01:00

Well still going with Full Tilt at the moment. Was up to $120 yesterday but Tilted a load off last night on Rush. Sit and Go Madness this weekend so we'll see how that goes. Still reckon it will be touch and go if I can qualify for the mid year bonus before busto (Or FTP goes Bankrupt) but we'll see.

Wife not well at the moment, so I am playing House Husband/Father more than Sports Punter currently.

Won £0.58 on the last Test laying the Draw to heavily. Thought I would go for the big one after the First Test, but it wasn't to be.

Noren cost me a few quid last weekend too, why do they never choke when I lay them :)

Anyway on to the main reason for the Post:

I have been trying to find out (without any success) what percentage of a Betfair Market is Trader money compared to Punter's money.

Say you have a Betfair Market where £2 Million is matched. We all know that means it is actually £1 Million has been staked/risked, but how much of that £1 Million would you say is Trader's money?

For example on the Cricket last weekend I would have probably contributed £500 or more to the Matched figure to generate a profit of £0.58 (which is what I pay commission on)

Sorry I am a bit short on time and I know I am not explaining this very well so let me ask a simple question - On a market where £2 Million is matched - What sort of figure do you think Betfair gets to charge commission on?

I can't seem to find the answer to this anywhere.

Geeks Toy and Betfair?

2011-06-03T14:11:00.000+01:00

God I hope the rumours around this are a load of rubbish. I really do.

Picture the scene:

Geeks Toy becomes Betfair's Premium Product to access their markets (Stops everyone going on about how shite the site has become and gives them a chance to say look we are doing something about it)

By the way as you now use the Premium Interface we need to increase your Commission/Premium Charge/Start charging Data Access Charge (Additional revenue stream so desperately needed at the moment by Betfair imo)

Three months down the line (after the in house developers get hold of a great piece of Software) you hit submit on a bet and get asked the question - 'Do you want to play Blackjack/Visit the Casino first?'

We all know Betfair Rapid is a pile of Cack, it all seems to fit :(

Somebody tell me I have got too much of a vivd imagination please...............

May Review and Full Tilt Challenge

2011-06-02T16:55:00.000+01:00

Firstly May in a nutshell:

Not bad for me, still work to do, but a decent profit even allowing for the £50 I did on Betdaq in the month (Would have posted a screenshot of that but couldn't find an easy way of doing it without listing all of the markets and that would have been a Blog of it's own)

Cliffs:

Barca stuff the Mancs (Superb!) although Fergie's humility after the Game kind of ruined it for me.

Swansea stuff Reading (Ok not technically stuff, but they deserved to win it. What price to come back down next year? 1.2?)

England beat Sri Lanka in the First Test (Quite frustrating because I quite fancied the lay of the draw @ 1.01 in the morning thinking it may be a trade but as usual didn't do it)

Sepp Blatter gets another 4 years (The only 4 years he should get is behind bars imo)

Scholes retires (Obviously not a Man U fan but after the Giggs debacle, the only Man U Player who I had any time for. Good Luck to him, a model pro imo, and there aren't many of them about any more!)

I tend to post a lot of my thoughts on Twitter now rather than on here because it's easier and going forward I am probably going to do that more than Blog. Word of warning if you do follow though for god's sake ignore any Horses I might post up, because I don't think I have posted a winner yet. Strangely enough if I don't post them they seem to run better as you can see in the P&L above.

Right then on to Full Tilt. No idea what is going on there at the moment but I have decided to withdraw my roll, leaving me in the position you see below:

How far do think I can get from here? I'll not be depositing any more on FTP (Going to open Pokerstars soon) but using FTPs and Iron Man medals I have probably got access to $125 in Tourney/Rush Tickets.

The goal is to achieve the mid year bonus, clear it and then withdraw whatever is left.

I'll keep you updated. The spread I am putting on myself is 7-9 June before Busto but we'll see.

As tweeted yesterday, I'll be doing another piece On Betfair shortly and in all probability putting another short in place prior to their FY Results at the end of the month.

Can you believe they have now got a Manchester United Casino Game? WTF?

Although reading this Customer Commitment it would appear they are now coming around to the fact that their business is falling off a cliff in any case.

Good Luck SP

Ever get the feeling you are trying to do too much?

2011-05-22T16:02:00.000+01:00

Back on the horse!

2011-05-18T16:35:00.000+01:00

Afternoon All, well Ok probably only my Mum reading by now I expect (Actually thinking about it I hope she isn't!)

Must admit I have missed the old Blogging, it's good for getting stuff off your chest every now and again (sepecially when it comes to Betfair I hear you cry!)

Actually talking about Betfair I see the Shares are now under £8................. A Fiver and they might be worth a speculative long term purchase I reckon. Watch this space.

I've still been playing a lot of Rush Poker (Nearly 200k hands now) but I must admit all of this Black Friday rubbish along with the fact they don't seem to be able to pay out the Yanks in a timely fashion means I am growing more wary of FTP by the day. It also means I am still stuck on NL10 becuase everytime I get my roll up to a point where I could have a shot at NL25, I withdraw it back down again.

I'm thinking of opening a PokerStars Account soon actually, so if anyone has any advice give me a shout.

On the Sports front I've still been playing around on Betfair in the main and just checking my last 3 months P&L am ahead to the tune of £18.17. Wow I hear you shout this guy knows what he is doing ;)

That's part of the reason for starting this up again actually, I want to see if I can start making some Beer Money using Betfair and always enjoyed posting up my thoughts (5 pints in three months is not a great return mind you!)

I still won't be posting every day, but I'll try to keep up as much as I can.

Been reading most of the other Blogs in my absence and it is such a shame some of the Good Guys seem to have disappeared.

I'll be getting involved in the Golf over the next few days, especially the Matchplay, where I think Luke Donald is a false favourite myself, but I'll update with some thoughts later.

Congratulations to my local team Reading who did the business last night, let's hope they can see off the Swans and get back to the Promised Land.

Enough for now.

Take Care

SP

Is this the funniest thing you have ever seen?

2011-03-12T20:10:00.000Z

Betfair, down half of today, have just posted this on the Service Forum:

It's all OK they are 'Really Sorry'

Is whoever posted this 16?

Why did I close that 'Short'......................

Not to worry it's Cheltenham next week. If they go down again I am going to laugh my knackers off.

I'll now take 2/1 they don't exist in 2015 if anyone is game?

Got a couple of quid in Betdaq for next week after Wales somehow won the Rugby.

BRING IT ON!

Cliff Notes

2011-03-03T19:41:00.000Z

Poker - Going well at 6 max Rush 10NL. Played almost 30k hands at a decent profit with rakeback (Graph to follow when I can be bothered)

Football:

Rooney v Wigan - How does he stay on the pitch and avoid any sanctions?

Ashley Cole in general - What is there left to say? Just a Dick of the highest order. Air Rifle? Training Ground? Are they out of control?

Chelsea v Man United - Did Fergie see the game against Wigan? Obviously not. What goes around comes around. Can Liverpool do them Sunday - God I hope so.

Is Vidic a walking Red Card? Yep............

Has Torres played yet?

Cricket:

India v England - Wow!

England v Ireland - WOW! - Kevin O'Brien take a bow son. How much @ 1.01? Hope it wasn't your money.

Betting wise as you may have seen from Twitter? Deposited £25 to Lay Man United @ 1.82 at Half Time. Withdrew said £25 and am now playing with the winnings. Up to £40 at the moment. Again screen shots to follow in due course. Aftertime? Me?

Betfair down yet again today and the Poker on there is now offically dead. However I have closed my Short for a Hundred odd quid, because I really can't be bothered to follow them any more.

Just lastly, but far be it from me to pass Judgement (and I know we have all had the begging emails etc) but ffs Mr O'Dwyer just sort your shit out please.........

Have I missed anything? Yep. Roll on Cheltenham................................

Back soonish.

SP

Blogging

2011-02-24T20:59:00.000Z

Well still no funds in Betfair, it's actually been quite theraputic not having a bet.

Poker still OK, I've got a bit hooked on the Sats now and it's been going well. If you are bothered have a look on Sharkscope (Can't be arsed with a screenshot) but won a couple of hundred more Dollars since the last update.

Also changed strategy on the Rush to 6 Max and so far that seems to paying dividends.

Balance up to over $300 now and I am raking for England, so all is good.

Just a quick thought for all you other Bloggers out there. I've been reading as I always do, and with very few excpetions it's like one big aftertimers convention. 'Can't believe x was y price', fook me we can all do that. Apart from Eddy, Mully and a few others everyone seems to be an expert after the event - Does anyone flag anything up at the time anymore?

BTW I backed Liverpool with 10 minutes to go tonight for a Grand, won me a small fortune it did.

Betfair Shares look like they are teetering on the edge to me now, I want to close the Short, but I can't bring myself to do it........ Watch this space! I'll try to let you know when I do rather than 10 Days aferwards.

Anyhow onwards and upwards, I think.

Come on let's have some more 'Pre-Event talk' rather than look at me I'm great after the event. Surely that is what it is all about.

Good Luck All and if anything goes 1.01 tomorrow and loses I'll have laid it.................

Interest Termination

2011-02-20T18:52:00.000Z

Oh well the £25 i put in to Betfair yesterday did better than I thought. It lasted until about 15.02 as opposed to 14.00 :) Think you could call that progress for me..............

The worst thing was my final bet yesterday was on Pride of Dulcote and while watching the race on Channel 4, it kind of hit home, why the hell am I doing this?

That poor horse was in the process of giving his all, just so I could get some entertainment for my £10. Well I guess I got more than I bargained for, because I didn't feel great after the race. RIP Pride of Dulcote.

I bet on the Football too and for the life of me I can't come to terms with why I care whether the Millionaires of Chelsea beat the Millionaires of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man United or anyone else for that matter - In fact I think I have come to the conclusion I don't.

Also looked at my Deposit History since 2004 on Betfair:

£38k - Are you having a laugh? Ok most of it has been taken back - But £38k?

What have I got to show for that? A Forum and Poker ban and a site that is now 1000% worse than even this time last Year. If it goes a week without crashing everyone is happy. But at least you can get a game of 'Deal or no Deal' whenever you want.

Also did my P&L for the last three months, progress?, I don't think so.

I have come to the conclusion I can no longer justify giving these feckers another penny of commission. I can't get on with Betdaq or anyone else so maybe I just need to take a break for a while. At least until Cheltenham anyway :) But I think I'll whore some Bookie Accounts for then as opposed to Betfarce.

I know I am boring all of you with the whole Betfair story, but if anyone fancies giving me 5/1 that they don't even exist in 2015, I'll have £100 with you. They surely can't keep getting away with all these outages.

I'll still post if I do something stupid, or have something interesting to say (I know don't hold your breath), but apart from that - or if I win WSOP 2011 - I'm going to take a break.

Wish all of you all the best and maybe speak again.

SP

PS It sounds like a sob story but it's not honest............... I'll still be playing Poker!

Reload

2011-02-19T12:58:00.000Z

Ok I know you have all been missing me (If anyone is still there?)

Decided to load up a whole £25 in to Betfair to see what damage I can do this afternoon.

The target is to not have £0.00 left by 14.00.

Poker's going well still, decided to have a go in a Sateliite last night with one of my Step 4 Tickets and low and behold managed to cash for a $256 Ticket. Obviously that's been converted in to Cash as I don't think I would be able to breathe playing a Tourney that size :)

Now if I could just stop spunking money on Rush I'd be laughing. 5NL was kind to me, but 10NL is killing me at the moment.

Betfair short still in place although I must confess i am thinking about closing it soon as the Shares don't seem to be going anywhere at the moment and it's getting very boring. Although if they keep bringing in random shit upgrades I must admit I may be tempted to keep it open.

Actually Results are due soon, 8th March I think, so I may keep it open for a bit longer. I can't see any way for these Results to be impressive.

Right then let's get started...........................

Weekend Punting

2011-02-14T17:13:00.000Z

Well back down to earth with a bit of a bump this weekend.

Had a really nice position going in to Sunday's Final round in Dubai, but unfortunately for me laid Mr Quiros before taking the kids out 10 Pin Bowling on Sunday Morning. Thought all would be well as I had my trusty iPhone on hand if any more trading was required.

Would have worked a treat if I could have got a strong enough signal to be able to connect to Betfair................... Most frustrating thing was I could connect to the European Tour site for score updates but could I get on to Betfair? No fecking chance. Worst thing is for once I can't even blame them lol

What should have been a £50 win turned in to a loss of about £30. Oh well Kids and Gambling don't mix, you'd think I would know that by now.

Got a most of that back by Trading the US Golf last night. Backed D.A Points prior to his last round and then traded a bit throughout. Made the mistake in the end by loading most of the Green on Hunter Mahan just before he missed the Birdie putt on 18 - but a win is better than a loss all the same.

Had Birmingham to beat Stoke on Saturday, which was a fortunate win. But laid Bolton at Half Time v Everton yesterday which was no good. In between I had backed the draw between QPR and Forest, but traded out after the sending off and Forest equalising. Should have let that one ride for sure.

The real killer yesterday was the rugby (both codes), backed Salford at half time (They looked useless), Bradford pre match and didn't trade out and Ireland to beat France. Apart from Salford the other two were sickeners.

I think most of the bets yeterday were down to me being tilted by losing on the Golf in Dubai after being in such a good position, buy we can't all be experts can we?

Anyway the Account is down in danger territory again after the withdrawals, so I have lumped the Balance (Well £36 to be precise)on Chelsea tonight. If they go down (and half of me hopes they do) Looks like I'll have to reload yet again.

I know it is all about ups and downs (especially when you are a clown like me) but maybe fewer events and a bit more of a strategy might not go amiss.

Maybe I'll save that for the next Bank..........

Until next time, which may be a while if Chelsea lose, Good Luck ;)

Dubai Desert Classic - Moving Day

2011-02-12T06:03:00.001Z

Well here is my position going in to Day 3. Nothing spectacular and much work to do.

I can't help feeling Rory is much too short here, but I am loathe to lay him at this point. Tiger played beautifully yesterday and hopefully he can repeat the trick today. Sergio looks well on the road back, but can he be trusted over the weekend?

Tempted to have a Tenner on Kaymer, Westwood and Hanson in the hope that at least one of them can get things going early.

Speaking of early, why the hell am I wide awake at 6-00am on a Saturday morning - Never happens on a weekday..................

Edit 8.22 Ok, I've had to lay Rory for £20, so get ready to see masterclass from him this morning..............

Betfair Q&A Wrap Up

2011-02-10T19:36:00.000Z

Ok before I go any further, I feel I owe Betfair an apology.

In their One Hour Q&A they managed to put a massive 28 questions on the thread. When you consider they say they have 3 Million Users that is impressive. They also managed to avoid every pertinent question that was raised. Again impressive.

Absolutely no sign of anyone Senior in Betfair, just some poor muppet who probably gets paid £15k per year doing all the Posting. Quality.

Apparently the site will be down again tomorrow as even though they know what has caused the problems lately, they have no idea as to whether they are solved. Again Impressive.

Eddie the eagle, one of the largest players in the Golf Market completely ignored. Don't know him personally but I do know without him the Golf Markets would probably collapse.

Lucky for me I was reading Snow White to my kids for 1/2 an hour of it. Becuase that seems a whole lot better than listening to an Hour of Jackanory.

Seriously tempted to close my short on the Shares and go Long. This Company is going places.

Oh and just to top it all off, despite them blocking me from posting on their Forum (I know you are shocked) and refusing to let me play Poker on their site any more. I get an email asking me to check my 'Poker Players Club' Statement.

Anyway back with the Golf later. Promise I won't discuss Betfair any more. They are going to be the next BP I can see it. Tossers.

Betfair Q&A

2011-02-10T17:56:00.000Z

Don't forget people a chance to see some of the head honchos on Betfair in a Q&A tonight @ 18.00 on their Forum Chat section.

It'll be fast and furious and the questions they answer won't be the easy ones, they want to make a difference here. Not.

A bit like earlier when they posted this as I was trying to trade the Golf:

Lucky for me I read the Forum isn't it. I had a whole 4 minutes to take down my bets before the site went down. What more could anyone ask? It was only Westwood, Kaymer and Woods coming down the 18th.

A shining beacon of a Company and for the life of me I can't understand why they aren't valued higher.

Jokers.................................

Be back later with an update on the Golf.

Dubai Desert Classic, Betfair (Again) and some Profit

2011-02-09T17:35:00.000Z

Well the good news is we have got a decent bank again. As you can see below the Punting Gods have been kind since the start of February:

The not so good news is I have withdrawn £200, because you'll be surprised to know I have lost a bit of faith in Betfair so the Balance is still at £100 or so.

In fact the annoying thing is this could have been even better if a Lay on Thomas Bjorn hadn't been taken during one of the many outages on Betfair last Saturday. But I guess the loss is small fry compared to some and as we all know by now, they don't particularly care about their Customers.

If you want to see a beautifully stage managed response from them and have nothing to do at 18.00 tomorrow, check out Forum Chat on their site. Should be a hoot and a complete waste of time as per usual.

Don't know about the rest of you but all this additional functionality they are supposed to be releasing in the Spring around 'In Play' markets just fills me with dread.

Still the good thing is they know what caused the outages on Saturday so they can fix it easily. The bad news is it was briefly down a couple of times earlier, so don't hold your breath.

Anyway on to the Dubai Desert Classic. I really fancy Kaymer in this along with a couple of outsiders. Though I would share my opening position with you to see what you think?

May have a chance to do a bit of Trading on this in the Morning, so we'll see what transpires (Betfair stability not withstanding). I want to be against Tiger and Rory at the earliest opportunity so here's hoping the make some Birdies and I can Lay them Sub 5.0.

On the Poker front also withdrew $100 from Full Tilt which I am probably going to put into Betfred to give them a go. Just fancy playing a MTT that doesn't last for 10 hours and have 3000 runners.

Ordered a Chip Set and a Wallet with some of my Full Tilt points, so I'll let you know what they are like when they turn up. Still got $70 in there and a load of Steps Tickets so I'll see what I can turn that in to. Just wish they would bring back the Matrix Tourneys at Step 3 and Step 4 Levels.

Enough drivel from me, be back with updates in due course.

Good Luck

SP

Betfair Upgrade

2011-02-05T13:13:00.000Z

Another classy upgrade from Betfair.

Trying to trade the Golf, then the Main Site goes down, then the API and finally the Iphone Site.

Just wish I had opened a bigger short on their Shares to be honest, this is now getting beyond a joke.

Still apparently it was all planned:

Utter clueless clowns.

No profit due to Infrastructure Investment, feckin muppets.

I'm sure the Virtual Racing is still running though.

W@nkers.

That is all.

Have a nice Day.

19.50 Kempton

2011-02-02T19:58:00.001Z

Ok, we've got a Bank again.

Let's try and keep it during the Footie eh :)

Tymismoni

2011-02-02T18:42:00.000Z

Had to have a go on this Beast in the 18.20 at Kempton, because it was backed like defeat was out of the question.

For once I hit the Green button at the right time though.................. Doesn't happen often.

Bank @ £90, but I have had £10 on Hindu Kush in the next @ Kempton. Let's hope whoever backed it @ 1.06 earlier knew what they were doing eh.......

I'll Tweet my football bets later. Can I get in to 3 figures tonight? Probably. £1.03 is the most likely.

On Reflection

2011-02-01T16:59:00.000Z

Well, had 24 hours or so to digest the events of yesterday.

I think most of my frustration was linked to the fact that I always saw Torres as an example of what I thought was good about Football. Yes he was a Liverpool player so you would expect a certain amount of rose coloured specs, but he always seemed loyal and not as much of a pr1ck as the rest of them can be.

Since joining Chelsea I've already seen in his interviews that maybe this was misguided and while I still wish him well, it's probably for the best he has gone. One thing that is for sure - Does anyone have a forward line with more propensity to sulk than Chelsea now? Drogba, Anelka and Torres - Blimey that could get interesting. Could have been worse, he could have gone to Howard Webb's Team.

On to the future, Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez. Too much money for Carroll? Yes. Potentially though could be like going back to the 80's and 90's and getting back to the roots. You can certainly see what King Kenny is thinking. Quite exciting actually.

Chelsea v Liverpool on Sunday should be worth watching. Although maybe from behind the sofa if you are a Liverpool fan.

Anyhow Betfair balance at a massive £35 (probably not after tonight!), Full Tilt @ $165 (Cleared that bonus), and the short on Betfair Shares still in place.

Onwards and upwards eh!

If I get involved in anything tonight I'll Tweet so you know what to avoid.

WTF

2011-01-31T19:04:00.000Z

Ok, I give up with the Football now, it's just gone silly.

Well Liverpool Football Club has anyway.

£35 Million for Andy Carroll. Feck me, I think Newcastle saw us coming a mile away. For a while I believed we were going to pay £14 Million for Charlie Adam too...........

For Christ's sake Carroll's not even fit. Even when he is, he's a PR Liability. Comoli, your powers of negotiation know no bounds.

I'm sure King Kenny knows what he is doing, but I just can't have today at all.

Looks like Nando has gone from Hero to the Player who broke the club. Fair play to him though, he should have left ages ago. Obviously knew what was going on which is why he's actually put in some effort recently. Still a quality player though.

OMG I can't even type - It's just so embarrassing.

FFS!

Kids..............

2011-01-27T20:56:00.000Z

Didn't update the post yesterday with the price I shorted the Betfair shares at - It was £9.98 for those interested. Looking at the Shares today it would appear all of my followers went in too (Thanks Mum and my one other follower). Early days but at least they are going in the right direction for now. I've moved the stop to £10.50 so the worst that can happen is I lose £52 - Actually not strictly true as the stop is not guaranteed, but you get the point.

Anyway on to the kids. I've got two. 9 and 4. Both gorgeous as you would expect (I am the Dad for christ's sake, hopefully). Anyway the 4 year old for the last week has been begging me to stop smoking........... Which just re-inforces what the 9 year old has been asking me for Years :( Bloody schools.

Right it is time to STOP! - If I do, hopefully they won't be back in Three months asking me to stop spunking money on Betfair and Poker.

Tomorrow night is D-Day - When I wake up Saturday morning I will be a non-smoker - Anyone done it? Any advice?

I've also worked out I can fund my Betfair Account with £50 a week instead. Sounds good yes?

Should I chuck the first £50 on Liverpool Top 4? No you are probably right.

God, Betfair have pissed me off enough as it is, if I send out a random post slagging them off over the weekend you know why, Nicotine Withdrawal is a terrible thing

BTW I won't be closing the short North of £7, so you can all laugh when Ladbrokes step in with an £11 bid to take out my Stop.

I know what's coming next from the kids - Can you give up Drinking Dad? No chance.

Good old Betfair..........

2011-01-25T20:15:00.001Z

Andy Gray Sacked, down twice last week, the Poker and Casino fiasco and the Shares are above £10 - Can anyone explain to me what is going on?

Fook me someone must be supporting the Shares.

I'm shorting them in the morning. New markets or not, they are so over valued it is untrue.

The next results are going to be awful.

Edit 26-01-2011 @ 19.05

Ok the short is in place, a massive £1 a point with a stop at £11.00. Let's see how wrong I have got this one. I've been bleating on about it long enough, so about time I put my money where my mouth is. Just like to temper the statement above about the next results being awful - Obviously this is my opinion, I have no idea whether they are really going to be awful.

Oh Well..............

2011-01-24T19:59:00.000Z

Mug treble didn't exactly give me a run for my money. Managed to trade some of the Jets game though and the Balance is now at the heady heights of £39 odd.

Unders for me tonight Bolton v Chelsea, Can't see a goal fest from here.

A boring 0-0 will do me fine.

Good to see Babel staying at Anfield now. 'I just want to play' - No you fecking don't you loser.

Sunday

2011-01-23T13:11:00.002Z

Well the kids are off out to a party this afternoon and I've got about £25 in my Betfair Account. Reckon it's about time I turned that in to a couple of hundred. I know bust by 15.00 but we can dream eh!

Can't let yesterday go without a mention though first, Wolves 0-3 Liverpool - What can I say? Shocking pitch, not a great game, but a strangely effective performance. Really looked like they were up for it, especially Torres. Is that light I can see at the end of the tunnel? Probably not, just a train I expect, but you never know. Could Suarez be the last bit of the Jigsaw? Must be the largest fecking Jigsaw known to man by now I reckon.

I am going to play around scalping some Horse racing markets for pennies today, prior to the main bets of the day.

I never do Multiples because only Mugs do Multiples (But hang on I am a Mug!). So with this in mind going to have a cheeky Tenner on the following Treble:

Blackburn to beat West Brom
Jets to beat the Steelers
Bears to beat the Packers

None of the Handicap rubbish on the NFL just straight match bets.

You can either laugh now, or wait until West Brom are 2 up at half time. You'll probably get more satisfaction leaving it until then ;)

Poker going well again, back up to $120 in Full Tilt with a $100 bonus almost completed. Still got $125 worth of Steps Tickets too, but still no Matrix Tourneys available. Starting to get an itchy trigger finger with these tickets now so you may see me spunk them off in MTTs before too much longer.

I'll let you know how I get on with the scalping......................

Edit 15.42 Apparently I can't do the multiple on Betfair, so I am going to have to do it manually. Let's start with £10 on Blackburn and see where we go. BTW Made about £2 on the Horses lol.

Edit 18.20 Ok We've got £23.60 on the Bears. Will I bottle it? Probably. Will I have the opportunity to bottle it? Probably not.

Are Betfair and others under attack?

2011-01-19T19:26:00.000Z

A strange week so far in the world of Poker and Punting.

Obviously the uproar with the Betfair Poker site, then Full Tilt went down for 'unscheduled maintenance'. Low and behold now the main Betfair site is down.

Are Denial of Service Attacks back in vogue? or did someone just pull the plug out?

Is there more to all this than meets the eye? Or do I just have a vivid imagination?

Decent figures for William Hill today, maybe there is life in the traditional Bookmaking business after all.................

BTW Mr Babel, if you agree to leave Anfield, I'll carry you anywhere you want to go. One waste of space on the way out (hopefully), only another half a team to go. Useless feckers.

RIP Betfair Poker

2011-01-17T21:20:00.000Z

Luckily for me I got turfed off the site a while back in a Poker and Forum Posting capacity.

Must admit I tried to get my Poker Account re-instated on Friday but was met with the usual crap from their supposed Customer Service people.

Looks like they did me a favour looking at all the ongoing problems at the moment. Anyone want a bet as to how long it is before they remove the Poker from the site permanently?

Following on from the Casino fiasco I can only imagine this is another nail in the coffin to be honest. Such a shame. Why don't they just bring back the guys who used to run it? If they don't do something soon they are going to alienate every Customer they have.

Betfair Poker Forum

I know it sounds like I am just bashing them again here on the back of the Valuation Posts, but honestly, I just wish they would get their house in order and quickly.

What was the excuse for the poor figures recently? Infrastructure Investment? Are they upgrading to Sinclair Spectrums or something.

Anyway back to Full Tilt and they have had problems too. I was playing a lot of the Steps Tournaments and getting off at Step 3 and 4 via the Matrix Tournaments they have. Not any more as they have removed them due to an issue or something. Pain in the ass to be honest as I have 2 x Step 3 tickets and 1 x Step 4 ticket in my Account which are worth about $125 and no low variance way of using them. Wouldn't be a problem but I've only got about $70 in cash in there presently.

Annoyed with myself on the Sports Betting front as despite flagging up my fancy for the Jets previously I've not got a penny on them and the price has now gone.

Might take a little break from the Sports Betting for a while until I can justify reloading with at least £100. That way I can get back to Trading as opposed to just gambling with small amounts.

Hope you are all well and apologies if you don't like Metallica, you can blame Cran and copious amounts of Alcohol...................

If you like music?

2011-01-14T22:49:00.001Z

Go to Cran's Blog.

If you like to win money go to Cran's Blog, or any others on the right.

If you want to lose, this is the place to be.

Nice to get drunk every now and again........................

Blackpool v Liverpool

2011-01-12T16:56:00.000Z

Well, I'm stumped.

Can't actually believe the price on Liverpool tonight, problems or no problems.

OK our away record is shocking, no Gerrard, but Evens away to Blackpool am I seeing things?

I've read some other Blogs and people (who I might add are much better judges than me as well as being more impartial) are laying it too! Is the world going mad!

King Kenny back at the helm means I can't see us going there for a point (If we do I'll give the game up)

Blackpool are not going to sit back and defend either, they can't do it. If ever there was a game set up for a certain Fernando Torres to shine this must be it. How much space is he going to get compared to normal games? A bit of service and he could be quids in.

I really thought we looked better on Sunday against Man United and at the prices surely this must be one of the value bets of the season.

The silly thing is I am not having a penny on, I just can't bring myself to press the button for fear of jinxing them.

If we get beat or draw tonight then so be it, but at the prices surely Evens is a back rather than a lay? At 1.5 I could understand the lay but 2.0? Not for me.

God I am going to look really stupid later aren't I........................

Poker looking better again which is nice. I am back up to $90 with a few Steps Tickets in the bank too. Might play an MTT later while listening to Talk Sport.

Just lastly my heart goes out to the People of Queensland, some genuinely shocking scenes over the last couple of days. Let's hope things don't get too bad over the next Day or so and everyone manages to keep safe.

Update

2011-01-10T16:59:00.000Z

Well it appears they were both on the brink as predicted.

Congratulations to England for retaining the Ashes in such emphatic fashion. The fact it was on Australian Soil makes it all the sweeter. Not sure where all the Aussies were in the crowd mind you...............

Alright none of us like losing (although I lose more often than most) but come on you've still got to show a bit of support to your home side. Surely Ricky hasn't alienated an entire Nation with his complete lack of sportsmanship? I for one hope he keeps the Captaincy, don't want to see them back at the top any time soon.

On to Roy Hodgson. Already said my piece on this situation. Really sorry it didn't work out for him to be honest. Can't be too down hearted though with King Kenny back for another stab. Fook knows where we go if this doesn't work out.

Saw more from Liverpool yesterday than I have seen for a while though against Howard Webb's Man United. Didn't think it was a penalty or a red card but these things happen especially with Mr Webb MBE (MUFC Bias Everytime) at Old Trafford.

Poker seems to have gone to pot since Christmas for some reason. I am trying to clear an end of year Bonus on Full Tilt and reckon it has turned me in to a rake monkey rather than thinking about my play. Too much withdrawn and a bad run leaves me with $20 in my Account at the moment. Luckily the one thing I am good at is finding the Deposit button at various sites.

I've had a couple of little goes at building my Betfair balance back up again, normally starting with £30 or £40 at a time, but the problem with small banks is you just want to gamble to get it in to three figures at least. (You'll be surprised to know I haven't achieved this yet and the Total Available at time of writing is £0.00)

Bit of a shame this as I appear to be one of the few people to fancy the Jets to go to The Super Bowl this year - Dare say that Deposit Button will be found again soon....................

BTW Liverpool @ Evens away to Blackpool - I shouldn't should I?

On the brink?

2011-01-06T07:58:00.000Z

Well let's start with the positive - English Cricket.

Always thought they had a big chance this time round in Australia but the ease in which they seem to have dimantled the Aussies has shocked everyone. Well Done Boys! Even after saying earlier in the Blog I was going to have a Punt on it, of course I didn't, so with my record - Maybe they have me to Thank too in no small part :)

RIP Australian Cricket. Ricky it couldn't happen to a nicer person.

On to Liverpool Football Club.

WTF is going on here? First it was Rafa's fault, then the Old Yanks, now it appears it is all down to Roy Hodgson.

Let me get one thing straight I like Roy Hodgson a lot, personally I think he is a Great Manager and an even better person. Given time with the overpaid knobs who take the field week in week out he could be successful.

Is he going to get the time? Of course not. Who the hell do they bring in next? Rafa seems to be available.

It's about time the Players stood up to be counted. I don't care if they like Roy or not, they are paid vast amounts of money to perform and at the moment they just aren't doing it. Why is it the Manager who get's sacked, can't we sack some of the Players first?

Fooking depressing to be honest. Especially with the Scum playing like shite and still getting results every week.

I blame myself in no small part for Liverpool's problems as I backed them for Top 4 not so long back.

PDC Darts Final

2011-01-03T12:55:00.000Z

Been an up and down couple of days.

Anderson has cost me a few quid waiting for the choke which doesn't seem to be arriving - No-one seems to be able to stay close enough to induce it. Will tonight be any different? At the prices I'll be risking a few quid on Adrian to be honest. Think he is one of the few players who may be able to live with the heavy scoring of Gary

The Power making way got me a few quid back (One off or the beginning of the end for Phil? Too early to say I reckon)

Wigan were dire yesterday costing me a few quid too.

On the Poker front played in a $100k Freeroll yesterday on Full Tilt. Only 20000 runners. Got to 10000 left and then came up against this beauty - Guess it wasn't to be.

Dealt to xSports_Punterx [Ad Ah]
shelton-b10 folds
Tobi1893 folds
finnsucker folds
jcm_maga calls 120
tenlittletoes folds
Fidrysek folds
xSports_Punterx raises to 540
SimpleJack90 folds
superb00bys folds
jcm_maga calls 420
*** FLOP *** [9h 4d Ac]
jcm_maga bets 240
xSports_Punterx has 15 seconds left to act
xSports_Punterx raises to 600
jcm_maga raises to 11,250, and is all in
xSports_Punterx calls 850, and is all in
jcm_maga shows [Jh Qh]
xSports_Punterx shows [Ad Ah]
Uncalled bet of 9,800 returned to jcm_maga
*** TURN *** [9h 4d Ac] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [9h 4d Ac Tc] [Kh]
jcm_maga shows a straight, Ace high
xSports_Punterx shows three of a kind, Aces
jcm_maga wins the pot (4,160) with a straight, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,160 | Rake 0
Board: [9h 4d Ac Tc Kh]
Seat 1: SimpleJack90 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: superb00bys (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: shelton-b10 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Tobi1893 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: finnsucker didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: jcm_maga showed [Jh Qh] and won (4,160) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 7: tenlittletoes didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: Fidrysek didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: xSports_Punterx (button) showed [Ad Ah] and lost with three of a kind, Aces

On the plus side I've started playing a lot of the Steps Tourneys and doing Ok in them at the moment, so we'll see how long that continues.

Off out this afternoon but hopefully back in time for the main event later before back to work tomorrow................

Yabba Dabba Do...........

2011-01-01T17:35:00.000Z

First bet of the New Year.

Well apart from the Mug Punting all afternoon of course. God I love Saturdays.

Barney @ 2.46 v one of the best bottler's in Darts - Yes please.

BTW If Barney comes through I'm laying Taylor with the winnings............. Maybe.

Happy New Year all.

2011 here we come..................

2010-12-23T12:03:00.002Z

Was going to do a long post reviewing 2010 but to be honest I can sum it up very easily:

I LOST MONEY

There is no getting away from it I am just shocking at Sports Betting. Lucky for me it's just a hobby eh!

As you know I have been playing around with Betdaq this month, but to be honest I just can't get to like it - The maddening thing is I don't know why. It's probably down to the fact that I am so used to using the Geek's Toy anything else just seems like a poor substitute.

Anyway back to Betfair for me (Why do I feel like I am selling out here?) for Sports Betting only. Not that I have much choice as my Poker and Forum Accounts are banned in any case lol.

If I do manage to put things together in 2011 I'd be crazy not to use my Betfair Account which will never attract Premium Charge the way things have gone for the last 7 years............

Don't want to harp on but the Shares have slipped under £10 now - They are worth £6 at the most IMO - Don't think they are going to do a runner with my money though.

I was going to do a whole load of Punting related resolutions for the New Year but I know I won't stick to them so what is the point? The one thing I am changing though is I am setting a Deposit limit of £100 per week on the Betfair Account to stop me getting carried away.

It's not all bad news as the Poker continues to go OK on Full Tilt, I have now withdrawn more than my original deposit and still have about $200 in there. Next year you'll be calling me Phil Ivey. Ok you won't! but we can dream!

Just lastly no more updated P&L on the Blog - I'll still post decent wins and losses when they happen but if you assume I am losing overall you probably won't be far from the truth.

Have a Great Christmas and New Year and let's see if we can make some money in 2011.

Betfair Valuation Update

2010-12-14T09:13:00.001Z

What can I say? Not going to include any more detailed analysis as people obviously aren't that interested in it.

Half Year results this morning were less than impressive for me, especially as they include the World Cup which as we know won't be around for another 4 Years now - What is the next Event that can replace that in the figures? I can't think of one either as I don't feel the Olympics will have the same attraction to Punters.

They have admitted the Poker business is collapsing and to be honest the only way I see from here is down.

The only positive for me is the Cash Balance has increased but you would expect that as these figures include probably the most pivotal quarter in the recent development of the Company.

Should have really backed my instinct and Shorted the shares when I did the original write up, but it's not really my style to do that.

The shares are getting hammered this morning, but I get the feeling this is just the start.

Unless a large market opens up for them in the short term, you would have to think they will need to introduce some further charges to even begin to justify their current Market Capitalisation. Without either the next set of Results are going to look dire.

Having said all that, there are many people out there who know much more about it than me and they are keeping the Share Price above £10 for a reason I am sure - If anyone knows what it is could they let me know please?

For me they have got a Fast Growth Company valuation but I don't think they are even growing organically at the moment...............

Man United v Arsenal

2010-12-13T19:51:00.001Z

OK, I hate Man United with a passion.

I also call every one of their games wrong.

Howard 'Homer' Webb is the ref which is not a great sign.

Cesc is on the bench - But I've still laid them (Man United) for £40 let's see what happens.................

Come on you Gunners (Never thought I would say that!)

Really disappointed with the lack of comments on the last Post, thought it may get a debate going but not to worry there is always another day. Results Day for them tomorrow so we'll know soon enough whether I am right or wrong.

Edit Half Time........................... Hmmmm, not looking good! Have tidied up the Blogs on the right to take out some of the dead wood too.

Valuing Betfair

2010-12-09T18:02:00.000Z

Ok, I have got a bit of time spare at the moment and I thought I would have a look at this in a bit more detail, inspired by Scott Ferguson's excellent Blog. Also they have a Half Year Results announcement due on Tuesday 14th December, so it may be timely.

I don't want this post to appear (regardless of my own thoughts) a bashing exercise, but more of a basis for some discussion. I am no Accountant, but am invested in Shares and on the back of this have picked up a rudimentary knowledge which I will try to apply here.

PLEASE DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING HERE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE AS I AM BY NO MEANS QUALIFIED TO GIVE IT.

The only information I have to go on are the Betfair Results which can be freely obtained from here - These are the results for the Year ending 30 April 2010.

OK let's look at some facts:

Core Betfair Revenue (I am not interested in 'Other Investments' maybe that is a mistake?)

2010
306m

2009
291m

You don't need to be a Rocket Scientist to work out this is a poor growth rate year on year (~5%) for a company with such a lofty valuation.

In September 2008 Betfair introduced their Premium Charge so you could argue that the majority of this increase could simply be down to this additional charge. Where is the organic growth? Is there any?

Betfair Group Operating Profit

2010
18.4m

2009
44.5m

What? In the Prospectus that was released prior to Flotation this was apparently due to massive Infrastructure Investment and World Cup Marketing. OK fair enough. I assume this will bounce back quite nicely when the World Cup figures are included in the release next week? I'm not convinced. Also the Asset figure does not seem to have increased to reflect the Investment.

Current Assets - Cash and Cash equivalents

2010
151m

2009
133m

On the face of it, impressive. There is no doubt Betfair are good at generating Cash. Also it has to be said the Company has no Debt which is fantastic. The problem I have with this is they are only owed 22m but owe 115m - Does £151m in Cash seem quite so impressive now?

Look I have missed out loads (and probably don't understand a lot more) but can someone justify for me how this Company is valued at in excess of £1 Billion? Yes they have first mover advantage and hardly any viable competition - But are the best years behind them? By their own figures they have 3 Million 'Active' Accounts (A lot of these will be Multiple Account Holders)- Only so many of these will want to play on the Arcade or Casino, especially with the recent negative press they have had (This has even made Wiki now)

The Poker side of things could have been a massive growth part of their future, but I am pretty sure this will not have grown in the latest figures. Since the move to OnGame I will be amazed if they have even stabilised this side of the business, let alone grown it. (The root of my fall out with them and I don't think I am alone)

The caveat to everything above is if a new market opens up for them such as the US, then I can start to understand the vaulation.

Ok I started with time and I may add to this over the coming days, but my 4 year old has just decided my time has run out..........................

What do you all think? Am I being too simplistic? Am I going to look stupid in a few days time when the Half Year results are released? (No change there then)

Just to reiterate I am not looking for a fight here, just putting my opinions down on record.

I know I said it was going to be slow.................

2010-12-08T11:53:00.000Z

But I didn't realise how slow to be honest.

Had a couple of small bets as you wll see but nothing major. Just really getting used to using Bet Angel and Betdaq to be honest.

The Jags aren't supposed to win in December are they? Well they do when I back against them.

I've also got some bets in place on some longer term markets, mainly around Liverpool to finish Top 4. Have you seen their upcoming fixtures? With Torres and Gerard back I can see them putting a bit of a run together myself and most of the Big Boys are playing each other over the same period. Might be good for a trade in any case.

Also had a silly Tenner on Curbishley to be the next Toon Boss. Looks like that is going down the pan. Why do I listen to silly rumours? BTW What a farce of a club, Mike Ashley needs shooting IMO where does he think the new Manager is going to take them? Top 4? Back to the Championship is my guess.

I'm still working on putting together some ratings on the Football - Hopefully this will be ready to go from January.

On the Poker front I have been putting in some hours on Rush to clear a couple of bonuses etc and it's not been going badly:

I seem to have adjusted to the nitty nature of the game. I guess time will tell whether it is sustainable or not.

Want to play some more STT and MTT's this month too.

Not missing Betfair at all yet but it's early days.........................

November Review and Goodbye Betfair

2010-12-01T11:12:00.000Z

Well first off what a result for England in the First Test - Didn't look likely with a couple of days to go, but what momentum it gives them going in to the rest of the Series. Should be compulsive viewing for those that like the late nights. I'll stick to the Highlights I reckon - Means I won't get to see much of Mitchell Johnson but they are the breaks.................

Looks like a revamped Attack (in the loosest sense of the word) in any case for the Aussies in Adelaide, starting to panic a bit do you think? Love it.

Anyway back to November and what a dire month it was on the Sports Betting front as you can see below:

Made the mistake of listening to some Horse Racing Tipsters and overstaking to boot on them - still not to worry a lesson learned and not to be repeated. If you can't back your own judgement then who can you back?

Anyway on to December and things are going to be changing around these parts, the first thing is I am no longer going to be using Betfair in any shape or form.

After using them for the best part of 7 years the time has come to say 'Goodbye'. There are a number of reasons for this (mainly I have lost all faith in them) but the main ones are listed below:

Betfair Poker - Absolute disgrace of an operation. Struggle to operate any Promotion without it going wrong as can be seen from their own Forum. When things do go wrong - no ownership of a problem, just a cavalier attitude that smells of 'We couldn't give a damn'

Betfair Casino - Don't use it myself but more examples of 'piss up and brewery' in this link:

http://www.best-casino-poker.com/betfair-casino-screws-players.html

I am still not convinced about the long term prospects for them, their Sports Book is excellent. but the rest of it is a shambles to be honest. The shares have already begun their inevitable dive from a frankly ridiculous valuation and while they continue to treat their customers with contempt I think the ones that remain are going to see additional charges introduced in the short term. (Obvioulsy this is IMHO).

It does however mean I won't be using the excellent Geeks Toy any more, but for any that do use Betfair I don't apologise for giving them another plug. The guy who runs it and the software itself are First Class (Any chance of a version for Betdaq?)

Personally I am going to be using Betdaq for the next three months to see how I get on, I know the liquidity is not the same as Betfair, but on the majority of markets I get involved with there is not really much difference.

I am also going to trial Bet Angel Professional for Betdaq.

December is probably going to be quiet for me, but inspired by Mark Iverson and also Talkbet I am going to put some work in to Automating some thoughts I have had around trading some of the Football.

On to the Poker and one of the best things I have done is move To Full Tilt from Betfair. I'm still rubbish but getting better slowly......................

Good Luck All.

Ashes - First Test - Brisbane

2010-11-27T09:46:00.000Z

Well not looking too good here are we?

Any chance some of this snow may find it's way to Brisbane in the next couple of days?

Still not involved from a financial perspective. If I was getting involved now (which I am not) it would be tough not to lump on the Aussies, 1.4x looks a fair price to me.

But wait, hang on, Cardiff (not a million years ago), First Test of a Series, England staring down the barrel and who pops up playing like Boycs in his pomp - That's it MONTY !

Any chance we could dress Monty up as Collingwood, and send him out there instead? Don't reckon these Aussies would notice and then you never know..................

The Ashes - Day 2 - Brisbane

2010-11-25T17:51:00.000Z

Well what seemed like a plan last night would have worked out great! Could have laid plenty of the draw at sub 3.0.

If I wasn't fast asleep on the Sofa at the time that is. Think I may have missed the boat on that one.

What is it with the Aussies? Even the time difference is rank.

Fair play to Mr Siddle though, bowl in the right place and you'll get your reward. Lucky for us MJ is still shite.

My heart is telling me this is a great place to lay the Aussies, my head is telling me to go back to sleep.

Difficult to trade when you can't stay awake after 23.00 UK time.

I think I'll leave this until the weekend for now.

Come on England! Going to wake up in the morning to the Aussies 326 All Out and England 51/1 I can feel it in my bones (Or is that old age?)

Anyone fancy subscribing?

The Ashes

2010-11-24T17:50:00.000Z

As regular readers will know, I tend to get a bit excited about these Major Sporting Events.

Can England do it? Surely they will never have a better chance.

I'll be up to watch the First ball tonight, sacrificing the beauty sleep (Mrs Punter reckons I have been doing that for too long anyway) - Only disappointing thing is Harmy isn't there.............

My strategy for the next few days is to lay the draw at anything sub 3.0 - I can't get involved pre game at 4.x but this is a result venue. Let's just hope England come out on top.

Was going to visit my local Coral's for a wager on the Series, but as usual time has run away with me and I didn't. Let's hope England make me regret that decision in the morning.

Come on Boys make us proud. Surely anything has got to be better than the Footie shite.

I'll have a wager with you that BetfairPokerPR is an Aussie...................

BTW Did anyone read about the scandal around Betfair Casino? I'm too thick to get involved in something when I can't lose but http://sportstradinglife.com/ seems to be on the ball.

What's going on then?

2010-11-21T22:00:00.001Z

Not a lot to be honest, not had a bet for a week, almost feels like I am going cold turkey or something. Well OK maybe not, I'll be back on the horse soon.

Been playing Poker instead for most of the time, mainly Rush over on FTP, still no good, but I think I have got one of those addictive personalities - I can't stop until I am winning and at the moment I'm not. You'd think I would stick to the SNGs where I was doing OK. Did actually use the withdraw button earlier this week though, there's a novelty for me.

Had a falling out with Betfair Poker and they have closed my Poker Account and banned me from the Forum now. Not really a problem to be honest as I wasn't playing there anyway and I did ask for it. If there was a definition of Fecking Useless it would be Betfair Poker, absolutely clueless. There is one cretin BetfairPokerPR who just seemed to able to wind me up through a complete lack of actually doing his job. I shouldn't get involved but I can't help myself at times. Worse thing was I was trying to stick up for people I don't even know on there - Work that one out.

WTF is going on in Ireland? Thought we were close to being fecked in England, but they seem to have taken it to a whole new level - Hope it sorts itself out, some of the nicest people I know are Irish and the problem can only spread. (I bet BetfairPokerPR isn't Irish - W@nker)

Been meaning to a review of the Geek's Toy on the Blog as he is doing a thing for charity, but I am such a lazy so and so I didn't get round to it. Needless to say it one of the best (and free) trading tools available at the moment and he has just released a new version. If you haven't tried it give it a go - you won't regret it.

http://www.geekstoy.com/ is the address to visit if you haven't already.

Unfortunately it doesn't stop you spunking money like me - but it makes it more bearable.

Now where is that Rush Poker Table?

Is this what you call a 'Heater'

2010-11-17T20:53:00.000Z

Love to think it was becuase I am fantastic at Poker, but probably not eh....................

Anyway the Sports Betting is shite at the moment so I'm not making any ground in any case.

WTF were Chelsea doing on Sunday?

Formula 1

2010-11-14T11:52:00.001Z

Been up and down over the last week, nothing special to report. About £100 in a hole for the month at the moment.

Reading got me out of a bit of a hole yesterday, was looking at a nasty loss if Norwich would have held on to their lead. Actually I say Reading got me out fo the hole, but the ref helped out too.

Having a bit of a play in the Formula 1 today, more of a value punt more than anything.

Laying Alonso for the Driver's Title at 1.4x.

You could say he doesn't have many friends on the grid who are going to make life easy for him, would it really surprise you if someone took him out? especially if Webber gets near him with Vettel out in front?

Also the engine in that Ferrari has seen better days but can't be replaced.

Here's hoping for an interesting final race.

BTW I have removed the link to Betfair as you'll notice - They are great for Betting but I wouldn't go near their Poker with a barge pole.

Warning........

2010-11-10T19:24:00.000Z

I've laid Man U tonight and I call all of their games wrong.

Can't see them winning this at all, cue a 2-0 victory.

Deeper in a hole....................

2010-11-08T16:59:00.000Z

Laid Newcastle at Half Time yesterday.

Thought there was no way they were hanging on to a one goal lead in the Second Half, the rest as they say is History.

The positive from yesterday was Liverpool's much improved performance against Chelsea, the only problem was they didn't carry a penny of my money, despite me thinking they were value. (Can you after time not having a bet?)

Much work to be done this week otherwise another red figure is hitting for November.

Zenyatta

2010-11-07T13:29:00.000Z

Well had a mixed day yesterday until late last night.

I love this horse. Everything about her is class and the running style just adds to the the overall hype that has always surrounded her.

I guess she epitomises this Blog really, coming from hopeless positions, but she always got it done unlike me.

She is responsible for one of my biggest ever wins on the Horses. Breeders Cup last year.

Threw the staking plan (yeah right) out of the window, to have one of my largest bets on her last night.

You know what I still don't regret it this morning. People can blame the Jockey all they like (I don't as it happens, thought he gave her the best ride he could) but it just wasn't to be. Have you ever seen a Horse try so hard though?

Anyway we've swung in to a loss for the month, so we have got some digging to do.

Slow week...............

2010-11-06T09:20:00.000Z

Not really done an awful lot this week as been pretty busy with stuff outside of the Gambling World.

About £50 in front at the moment for November down to some skilled (or is that lucky) Trading on the Football. Sure that will go and more Today.

Been a decent week on the Poker and my Sharkscope graph is showing a healthy ascent on Full Tilt currently. Gradually eating away at clearing my bonus too which is nice. Got a ticket to $100k Freeroll for tomorrow - Think there are only about 20,000 people in it so far lol.

If anyone wants to set up a Full Tilt Account let me know as they have a decent refer a friend scheme which we can use. You get free cash and I'll give you half of the cash I get out of it too. If you email me at sports_punter@hotmail.co.uk we can go through the details.

Haven't played on Betfair Poker since last Sunday and to be truthful am unlikely to play until this Sunday's Klup Challenge. I think once a week will be it for me going forward. They have some decent promotions on at the moment, but they don't really suit me. They are also offering a Bonus for play over the weekend but as is usual for Betfair the Promo code doesn't work for me and I can't be bothered to talk to probably the worst Customer Services known to man.

Met up with a certain John Tuohy (aka The Gambler) yesterday for a bit of lunch. First time I have met him, Interesting chap and the sort of person who you just know has got a million stories to tell. Right up my street.

Might be back later with some selections for the Football if anyone is interested.

October Review

2010-11-01T16:25:00.000Z

Well what can I say! A profitable month. You don't get many of those on this Blog.

Nothing staggering and I won't be posting from Barbados just yet, but I actually finished in front.

Believe it or not I actually won money on the Golf this week in the end which just goes to show how pitiful my performance was for the rest of the month.

The Horse Racing saved the month for me.

Poker has been steady if unspectacular. Not going to bother posting the graphs any more as you can check them for yourselves on Sharkscope or similar if you are interested.

As a reminder I play on Betfair as Davinci I and Full Tilt as xSports_Punterx (I don't have chat on at all on Full Tilt however, so if you see me and try to say hello don't be offended if I ignore you)

For November I am going to try some more MTTs as I am getting bored with the STTs.You never know a nice win would be handy with Christmas coming up.

Let's see if we can continue the good work in to November, you never know I may even need some help finding the withdraw button at some point..........

Valderrama Masters - Moving Day (I Hope)

2010-10-30T05:40:00.000+01:00

Managed another less than stellar performance on this yesterday.

As you've probably guessed G-Mac is my only Red, and what a Red, close to three figures.

Everyone I got on side moved in the wrong direction yesterday apart from Fasth (regular readers will know of my history with this man) and the only one I lay looks like he is playing a different course.

I could have a proper wedge on G-Mac to get me out of trouble, but to be honest that is not the Sports Punter way and 1.9x with 36 holes to play on a difficult course with the possibility of some weather and only a 2 shot lead. No thanks. I'll take my chances.

Could be a long day today..................

Valderrama Masters

2010-10-29T06:23:00.000+01:00

Well I did lump on Kaymer in the end, but somehow by the end of the day he is now my biggest loser (and boy there are a few of them)

Might do a bit of tinkering before they tee off this morning, but not looking great at the moment to be honest.

Big Mig, Parry, James Kingston (Don't ask) or Rock going low this morning would help.......... I know I am not holding my breath either.

Quick One

2010-10-27T16:46:00.000+01:00

Just a quick update as not much time.

Things back on track for October at the moment, about £150 in front so we may yet get those September losses back yet............

Poker going Ok, nothing sensational, but think I may be getting a bit of new Account Luck over at Full Tilt which is nice.

Had a half decent result on Sunday on Betfair finishing Third for $85 or so in a small tourney too.

Thinking about having a bit of a lump on Martin Kaymer in the Golf tomorrow, not sure yet, but probably will.

Back soon with a full update and obviously on Sunday for the Month's P&L.

Rooney and the Abyss

2010-10-23T09:59:00.000+01:00

Well Rooney decides he is going to stay and all is happy in the world again, or is it?

I can't help feeling this is going to be the rod that broke the camel's back in the world of Football.

Already Ashley Young comes out and announces he is not signing a new contract until the Summer, is this the way it is going to be forward? Absolutely no loyalty.

Like him or loathe him (as I do) Alex Ferguson has always been someone not to be messed with, no one player has ever been bgger than the club - Not any more apparently. What will the Old Trafford Dressing Room be like now? We know Evra has got a track record and what about Rio? Is he going to be happy?

Must admit I have had a gut full of Football now. I can't get out of my mind Rooney leaving the pitch to a chorus of boos after another abject performance at the World Cup and swearing at the camera demanding Loyalty from the Fans - Maybe he just doesn't understand what the word means? He's obviously not the sharpest Tool in the box.

Phoned Sky in the week to cancel as I don't want to gve these Prima Donnas another penny. However they offered me 6 months at half price, so decided my principles should be limited to the Blog lol.

My new Hero............

2010-10-22T09:15:00.000+01:00

Ian Holloway, take a bow son.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9116212.stm

Even though it's Man United and I struggle to feel sorry for them, is he right or is he right?

Where have I been?

2010-10-20T13:07:00.001+01:00

Well, not updated for a while so thought I would put something on here to explain why.

Opened a Full Tilt Poker Account last week. Found RUSH Poker. Not to put too finer point on it I am addicted, not very good at it yet, but ADDICTED!

If you haven't tried it yet give it a go. I managed to find a deal to open the Account through Cardrunners, which gives 3 months free Cardrunners along with Hold Em Manager for free and 27% Rakeback. Not a bad deal all told. Got to Rake a few quid first obviously, but looks good so far.

Lost a few quid on the Sports Betting over the weekend - Nothing new there I hear you cry - and probably looking at a loss for October to go with my loss for September now...........

Won $100 from Betfair in one of their Giveaway Tournaments which has helped though.

On to Wayne Rooney. Is it just me who is laughing my head off here? For Years Man United have been tapping up players (Berbatov anyone?) but now Rooney wants out and the boot is on the other foot they are crestfallen. Reckon we could be seeing the end of an era shortly with old Red Nose Fergie........ Quite tempted to lay them in the Top 4 Premiership market as it goes.

Liverpool finally get new Owners - Will they be any better than the last shower? Only time will tell. If Torres doesn't get some confidence from somewhere, could the unthinkable happen and they get relegated? God Forbid.

Is the Premiership Bubble about to burst? It can only be a good thing IMO if the wages started tumbling and we got back to some sort of reality.

Anyway I need to get some work done, before getting another session of Rush Poker in later along with trying to resuce the Sports Betting for the month.

Hope you are all winning loads (If you are just bear in mind it is probably my money)

SP

Oh Well...........

2010-10-13T17:11:00.000+01:00

Well India won the Cricket really comfortably as it turned out. Well done to them. My concerns over the Aussie Bowling attack were realised. Roll on the Ashes.

I managed to turn a good position in to a losing one like a Numpty, primarily by backing my judgement that the Aussies would prevail. Basically I went for the big win on them and left a £7 red on India. Never mind no real harm done.

As to the Football last night, what a nightmare. Wasn't even going to watch it, because to be honest I am getting bored of it.

But no, what do I do? Decide to switch on for the Second Half. Obviously can't watch it without a bet so layed 0-0 at half time. The rest as they say is history.

Lost both $50 Poker tickets last night too, so my Sharkscope Graph looks like it has fallen off a cliff. Lucky for me I didn't pay for the tickets eh...........

Checked earlier and I am still about £100 up for the month so it's not all bad and I can't really find much to chase on tonight so it looks like it will be Poker instead.

BTW Mr John Tuohy aka The Gambler, I have tried ringing you twice now, Have you tried turning your Mobile on? ;)

Cricket Update

2010-10-12T18:04:00.000+01:00

Done a bit of Trading during this morning's action. Not much as didn't really have time.

Anyway the upshot is I am now level the draw with the largest Green on Australia, who to be honest I quite fancy from here. With a decent Bowling Attack I'd fancy them even more.

Should be an interesting day tomorrow.

Got a couple of $50 STT Tickets in my Account so am going to use them tonight to see if we can get at least a cash to boost the bank a bit.

It'll ruin my stats on Sharkscope if I don't win as they will assume I am paying for the buy in, but who cares, it'll give me another target to aim for to get back to break even.

As an aside I am going to opening a PokerStars Account in the next couple of days if any one out there is an affiliate and fancies sharing the bounty?

India v Australia 2nd Test

2010-10-11T20:01:00.000+01:00

Well what started out as a smallish back of the Aussies has turned in to a bit of largish Punt.

I have laid a chunk of the draw at 1.3x which may not be the wisest move I have made, but there you go.

Just think the game has moved on quite quickly and tomorrow I can't see the Draw price getting much shorter regardless of what happens.

The Aussies want to win this game and I think they do what they need to do to achieve it, even if it costs them the Match.

Hmmmm, things were going well too.

Long Time no Post

2010-10-10T09:03:00.000+01:00

Well, what's been going on in the land of Sports Punter? Not a lot to be honest.

Belated Cogratulations to Europe for winning back the Ryder Cup. Really enjoyed the Monday Singles even though they cost me a few quid. I backed Rory, Lee and Kaymer so dropped a few quid there.

Had a good week on the Horses so far though, a couple of Hundred in front. Apart form that though nothing has been worthy of a Punt for me.

Been winning a few Tickets on the Poker, so should be playing a few decent Tourneys over the next week or so. A big cash someone along the line would be nice.

I'll update the P&L for October when I get today out of the way.

I've laid Kaymer and Parry in the Alfred Dunhill so far, but will trade this later on.

God I hate the International Break Football Weekends.

Oh and just lastly as some of you probably know I follow Liverpool, what the fook is going on there at the moment?

Gutted

2010-10-03T10:19:00.000+01:00

Made a deal with the better half, that I'd do all the family stuff yesterday if I could have today in front of the box to watch the Golf.

Missed a full day's play for a potential washout.

Looks like she checked the Weather Forecast better than I did...................

Right then kids, let's get the Wii out.

September Review

2010-10-01T10:24:00.000+01:00

Poor month in all honesty.

Done a chunk on the Sports Betting (Just for a change)

Poker has been better but again, I'm not really making much progress.

New month and a new start though so not all bad.

Day off today to watch the Ryder Cup (Hopefully, if they get started again soon).

Laid Woods/Stricker and backed Donald/Pod so far, but this will change as and when they get started.

Come On EUROPE!

Betfair Flotation

2010-09-28T15:45:00.000+01:00

I am finding this fascinating to be honest.

Struggling to find any justification for a mooted £1.5 Billion Flotation, but there again I am no expert.

Should really have been putting my thoughts on the Blog but instead have been contributing to a thread on Betfair which can be found here

My posts are under the name DaVinci I. (Can you guess what book I was reading when I set the account up?)

What do you guys think? Am I being particularly harsh or pessimistic?

Not much happening..........

2010-09-27T18:47:00.000+01:00

Still about break even on the Poker and losing on the Sports Betting.

I'll update the figures at the end of the week for September.

You'll notice a slight change in the Blog (God I get bored easily) and also I am going to be updating on Twitter now on a more regular basis (Not posted anything yet, but I will do soon) and I'll save the Blog for when I have got something more substantial to say.

Roll on the end of the week and the Ryder Cup................

Going to try and do a Post on the Betfair Flotation at some point this week, so stay tuned.

Update

2010-09-20T17:38:00.000+01:00

Well it's been a little while since the last update so I thought I would bring things up to date.

Finally getting the hang of the STT on Ongame which is nice and finally showing a small profit since Betfair moved at the end of July. Nothing special but considering I was in a hole for a few hundred Dollars after a dreadful start with I am pleased.

The sports betting on the other hand has been woeful even by my own low standards. If I am to salvage anything from September I need to get my act together and fast.

I really should be laying England in the ODI at the moment, but I can't bring myself to do it against a Pakistan team who I don't know whether are trying or not.

The bank is looking a bit sick at the moment, so I could do with a big win from somewhere - any ideas?

Not the best Weekend

2010-09-13T17:36:00.000+01:00

Lost money on both Golf events in the end.

Also dropped a few quid on the horses, really fancied Rewilding in the Leger, then had a couple of chase bets like you do.

My plot on Fasth needs to wait for another day.

Poker is going Ok though for a change, almost back to break even on the STTs.

Quite fancy Stoke to turn Villa over tonight, but won't be having a punt.

Very disappointed Rooney didn't play on Saturday, but the result and the manner of it made up for that somewhat.

Golf both sides of the Pond

2010-09-11T08:26:00.000+01:00

As per yesterday's post though I am now £10k Green on Fasth, so if he could throw in a few early birdies it would be appreciated.

I have just selected the Greens above and the larger Reds obviously. I am red the field to the tune of £36 too. Actually I have missed one out I am also Green on Hutsby to the tune of 2k too.

In the US I haven't traded my opening position at all owing to a longer than expected stay at the pub last night....................

Niclas Fasth

2010-09-10T13:43:00.000+01:00

Ok lads and lassies as I posted yesterday I have been on him since the start so have been watching his numbers.

Not for everyone this, but thought I would highlight if anyone may be interested.

Someone started laying him at 1000 when it looked like he would miss the cut.

He had a great back nine though and according to the scorebaord (Can't verify until Sky comes on later) he now sits at -2, just 6 off the leaders who don't look like they are going anywhere this afternoon.

He is still available at 1000 though to decent money too.

Don't get me wrong in all probabilty he won't win but may offer a decent trade from here.

I've chucked a fiver at it, so if it goes tits up no harm done.

Mixed Day

2010-09-09T18:23:00.000+01:00

Laid Joker last night in the Tennis. Not a great start to the new week.

Had a punt on the Horses today, just the one and luckily for me it won. Wootton Basset.

In a mess on the Euro Golf at the moment backed Fasth, Siem, Quiros, Rock and Oosty before the start and they are all more likely to miss the cut than win.

Got Tiger, Hunter and Zach running for me tonight in the US.

Why am I doing this Blog again? Oh yes to cut down on the scatter gun approach..... Likely story.

At least a comment on the Blog last night promised me an ROI of 35%, maybe I should get in touch.

P&L Update

2010-09-08T13:04:00.001+01:00

Not a bad week. Seemed to have stemmed the losses on the Poker. Maybe I am starting to get used to the Ongame structure, or maybe just been lucky, who knows?

Pakistan bet last night was a waste of time and effort. They are just useless and I won't be touching them again that's for sure.

Watched the England Footy last night and was almost impressed. We nearly looked like a team.

Would Capello be brave enough to leave JT and Frank out next time they are fit? That for me would be real progression.

Any way I'll be glued to the screen for Eveton v Man United over the weekend. Especially if Rooney manages to shake off the niggly little problem that he is bound to develop this week..........

England v Pakistan (T20)

2010-09-07T16:55:00.000+01:00

Well after all the rubbish that's gone on lately surrounding Pakistan you'll probably think I am mad getting involved here (To be honest I think I probably am)

Can't have England so short though so have had to lay them for a few quid.

Will probably trade the match if I get a chance.

With the Football on tonight as well (Not that I am overly bothered about a bunch of over paid serial aldulterers running around on a pitch) could be a busy night.

Come to think of it why do I do this?

A choice between watching a potentially corrupt Cricket Nation or a bunch of overpaid, oversexed prima donnas running around a football field.

What's worse I am susidising all of it, by paying Sky ridiculous amounts of money and not knowing whether one of the Pakistani players are on the other end of my bet.

Bollox I'll probably play Poker. What was that Tears for Fears song? Mad World. Too right.

Winning a few quid this week up top this point, but will update with last 7 days figures later on. If i am still Green I'll be happy.

Time to get out of these Bad habits (Part 7)

2010-09-02T18:50:00.002+01:00

I've noticed over the last few weeks, I've started slipping back in to the bad old habits of betting on anything and everything. Ok I know I never really got out of them in the first place.

Going to change this from now on (At least until the next relapse) and post up all bets I place along with P&L for the week/month or whatever.

I'll also post up the Sharkscope of my Poker on a weekly basis to try and stop the Tilt. Funnily enough the bleeding seems to have stopped for the time being in any case (Yesterday excepted), but let's see if we can get it going in the right direction.

No bets on the Golf this week as yet, but this will probably change tomorrow.

Update

2010-08-29T10:28:00.001+01:00

ell this morning's revelations about Pakistani Cricket, while not being unexpected, are pretty devestating to be honest. There has to be doubts about whether I'll see any of the profit I've got on the game now.

Mohammad Amir in particular is a quality young bowler and it would be really unfortunate if he has been embroiled in the corruption that has been prevalent for a fair while now.

This could finish them on the International stage which would be a real shame.

The Golf went Ok yesterday, but again I am going to have to get lucky to make any proper money on it.

Golf & Cricket

2010-08-28T08:25:00.000+01:00

My book on the golf is a bit all over the place at the moment. A case of over trading.

Got a bit of work to do today to try and clean it up. It's very open going in to the weekend though.

Got lucky with the Cricket. Basically laid Pakistan at the right time. Well played Broad and Trott. I might just green this one up and let it run........... Ok you are right I probably won't.

Will probably get involved in the US Golf at some point today - Is Tiger back?

Johnnie Walker - Day 1

2010-08-26T20:45:00.000+01:00

Fairly decent day today for a change.

Got a reasonable position mainly thanks to a trade on Robert Rock.

Have decent greens on some of the others in the field too, so let's see what a horlicks I can make of this tomorrow.

Weekend Update

2010-08-23T17:28:00.000+01:00

Well, what can I say.

Had a great day at Legoland on Friday, checked the Cricket sporadically (Ok every 5 minutes or so) and everything seemed to be going to plan. Bloody Hell even Cook got a Century.

Then something bad happened we got in the car to come home. In the time it took for me to drive home (45 minutes or so) and get to the pub (15 minutes tops, it had been a long day) England decided to collapse like the proverbial deck of cards.

With no chance to trade out, I decided to let it run on Saturday. Oh well fair play to Pakistan, nice to see them win a Test in any case.

My arrows in the Golf were awful (Hed excepted Friday) and by the end of the 4 days I managed to lose £50 on this event too. Never thought Hanson would be able to withstand the pressure of a Ryder Cup slot.

The only saving grace was Fleeting Spirit was a non runner so at least I got my stake back there.

So, not a great weekend and you'll notice by the lack of a 'Donate' button on this page I don't expect it to turn around soon.

Cricket and Golf

2010-08-20T06:50:00.001+01:00

Off to Legoland today with the family. Be nice to have a day off and quite looking forward to it.

Obviously won't be trading these too much today which is probably a good thing.......... but got to have a bit of an interest to check on while I am there.

If I am being honest I don't really like the position I am leaving in the cricket, but just got a feeling today may be the day for England to put on a few runs and Alistair Cook to come to the party. Let's face it a lead of 200 and you wouldn't be lumping on Pakistan would you?

The golf bets are mainly down to the fact I am a degenerate.

Anyway if you see some nutter desperately playing with his iPhone while on the rollercoaster you know who it is...........

Edit 7.12

Just before the kids get up had to have a look at the York card and decided to have £20 on Fleeting Spirit in the Nunthorpe.

Weekend Wrap Up

2010-08-17T12:46:00.000+01:00

Well managed to squueze a few quid out of the Golf in the end.

Unfortunately Rory didn't manage to get over the line and my £250 Green on Dustbin disappeared in the most dramatic fashion. My thoughts at the time were probably nothing compared to his though.

York this week so I dare say I'll have a little dabble at some point, at least until I realise (As I do every year at this meeting) I don't pick many winners at York for some reason.

Still playing a bit of Poker without much success. I just don't think the move to Ongame has suited me at all. If anyone has any bright ideas about alternative sites, please feel free to get in touch or post a comment.

Sunday Sports

2010-08-15T14:30:00.000+01:00

Didn't really trade the golf too much yesterday as I was out for the day at Newbury Races where I had one winner Shakespearian and that was it.

Those nice chaps at Bet 365 offered me a £100 bonus for £100 deposit so I decided to take them up on their offer on Friday night. They've obviously got me labelled as a Mug Punter, how astute of them. Maybe they read the blog?

Anyway before setting out for the day yesterday decided to have £40 on Somerset to win the T20 Finals.

They lost the final on wickets taken. Oh well that's £40 I'll never see again.

I've also got the following bets on the go with them currently.

I'm tempted to lay the Rory bet on Betfair and I should have laid Forest on Betfair at 1-0 up, but I guess that's not really my style.

I have got rid of my exposure on the Golf and am probably going to just let what I have got ride. But we'll see how I feel later. Still the potential for more carnage if I am in the mood :)

A lot's going to depend if Forest can get a winner in this Second Half.

Really hope Rory can bag his first major tonight and it's not just for financial reasons. In fact the more I think about it the more reason I should lay Rory on Betfair as he'll never win if I've got money on him.

USPGA - Day 3

2010-08-14T09:55:00.000+01:00

Not much to say really other than come on RORY!

USPGA - Day 2

2010-08-13T10:18:00.000+01:00

A reasonable start yesterday by my normal standards. Was impressed with Tiger. He may not be everyones cup of tea as a person, but he's a fighter that's for sure.

I've reduced my liability and added a few other players on the Back side. From here on in I would expect I'll be doing more Laying than Backing, possibly starting with Mickelson. I just can't have him at all this week but I might wait to see if he hits single figures early, before pulling the trigger.

If Rory gets hot with the putter today I could see him at the top of the leaderboard come tonight.

Should be a long and interesting day ahead.

Good Luck.

USPGA Golf

2010-08-12T13:20:00.000+01:00

God I'm dumb, but at the price I've had to back Tiger again.

I think deep down I enjoy taking pain from my Punting, maybe I need to see a therapist.

I'd kick myself in to next week if he plays well so I couldn't resist - For god's sake nearly 16/1..........

Got a few others running for me as well but as usual will be trading myself into an awful position along the way too :)

Good luck if you are having a go.

Poker

2010-08-12T13:15:00.001+01:00

As I may have mentioned, I enjoy a game of Poker every now and again. Well to be fair I play quite a lot.

Always played on Betfair at more or less breakeven over a period of time.

As I am sure most of you already know Betfair recently moved their platform to Ongame which initially I was quite happy with.

Since the change though my stats are awful (see below) and I can't put my finger on what is causing it? I always thought I was a bit of a Donk and it looks like I am......................

Going to make a big effort to try and turn this around (To be honest it's not as bad as it looks as I finished 6th in the 5K Guaranteed before they canned it for $325) which for some reason is not recorded in these stats, but the downward slope looks awful on Sharkscope..........

Weekend Update

2010-08-09T09:37:00.000+01:00

Well managed to get out ot the Bridgstone winning £6 which doesn't sound like much (and it isn't) but seeing as though I dropped a good few quid by backing Tiger pre tournament, I am quite happy.

Lost a few quid on the Community Shield, laid Man United as I didn't think they had a prayer, how wrong can one man be.

On to today and I've laid England in the Cricket. Unlikely to come in I know, but at the price it's got to be worth a few quid of anyone's money.

Let's see what happens.

Bridgestone - Day 1 Update

2010-08-05T22:03:00.000+01:00

Well if you didn't think nearly 5/1 was value on Tiger, I am pleased to inform you he is now available at 50/1.

The best bit is I wouldn't back him at twice those odds.

I feel it is only fair to warn you all that I'll be going subscription only soon with this dross. I pay you £10 a month and you read the Blog :)

Looks like I'm trading again now. Let's see how much more I can lose.

WGC - Bridgestone Invitational

2010-08-05T09:44:00.000+01:00

One of my favourite tournaments of the year this. Due in no small part to the fact that Tiger has dominated so it has been fairly easy to predict.

Can he do it this year?

I'm not sure. But one thing is for sure on a course where he normally goes off 6/4 or simlar he's got to be worth a crack at nearly 5/1.

Had a few quid on and hopefully after a couple of early birdies we can start trading.