2011 here we come..................

Was going to do a long post reviewing 2010 but to be honest I can sum it up very easily:

I LOST MONEY

There is no getting away from it I am just shocking at Sports Betting. Lucky for me it's just a hobby eh!

As you know I have been playing around with Betdaq this month, but to be honest I just can't get to like it - The maddening thing is I don't know why. It's probably down to the fact that I am so used to using the Geek's Toy anything else just seems like a poor substitute. 

Anyway back to Betfair for me (Why do I feel like I am selling out here?) for Sports Betting only. Not that I have much choice as my Poker and Forum Accounts are banned in any case lol.

If I do manage to put things together in 2011 I'd be crazy not to use my Betfair Account which will never attract Premium Charge the way things have gone for the last 7 years............

Don't want to harp on but the Shares have slipped under £10 now - They are worth £6 at the most IMO - Don't think they are going to do a runner with my money though.

I was going to do a whole load of Punting related resolutions for the New Year but I know I won't stick to them so what is the point? The one thing I am changing though is I am setting a Deposit limit of £100 per week on the Betfair Account to stop me getting carried away.

It's not all bad news as the Poker continues to go OK on Full Tilt, I have now withdrawn more than my original deposit and still have about $200 in there. Next year you'll be calling me Phil Ivey. Ok you won't! but we can dream!

Just lastly no more updated P&L on the Blog - I'll still post decent wins and losses when they happen but if you assume I am losing overall you probably won't be far from the truth.

Have a Great Christmas and New Year and let's see if we can make some money in 2011.

Betfair Valuation Update

What can I say? Not going to include any more detailed analysis as people obviously aren't that interested in it.

Half Year results this morning were less than impressive for me, especially as they include the World Cup which as we know won't be around for another 4 Years now - What is the next Event that can replace that in the figures? I can't think of one either as I don't feel the Olympics will have the same attraction to Punters.

They have admitted the Poker business is collapsing and to be honest the only way I see from here is down.

The only positive for me is the Cash Balance has increased but you would expect that as these figures include probably the most pivotal quarter in the recent development of the Company.

Should have really backed my instinct and Shorted the shares when I did the original write up, but it's not really my style to do that.

The shares are getting hammered this morning, but I get the feeling this is just the start.

Unless a large market opens up for them in the short term, you would have to think they will need to introduce some further charges to even begin to justify their current Market Capitalisation. Without either the next set of Results are going to look dire.

Having said all that, there are many people out there who know much more about it than me and they are keeping the Share Price above £10 for a reason I am sure - If anyone knows what it is could they let me know please?

For me they have got a Fast Growth Company valuation but I don't think they are even growing organically at the moment...............

Man United v Arsenal

OK, I hate Man United with a passion.

I also call every one of their games wrong.

Howard 'Homer' Webb is the ref which is not a great sign.

Cesc is on the bench - But I've still laid them (Man United) for £40 let's see what happens.................

Come on you Gunners (Never thought I would say that!)

Really disappointed with the lack of comments on the last Post, thought it may get a debate going but not to worry there is always another day. Results Day for them tomorrow so we'll know soon enough whether I am right or wrong.

Edit Half Time........................... Hmmmm, not looking good! Have tidied up the Blogs on the right to take out some of the dead wood too.

Valuing Betfair

Ok, I have got a bit of time spare at the moment and I thought I would have a look at this in a bit more detail, inspired by Scott Ferguson's excellent Blog. Also they have a Half Year Results announcement due on Tuesday 14th December, so it may be timely.

I don't want this post to appear (regardless of my own thoughts) a bashing exercise, but more of a basis for some discussion. I am no Accountant, but am invested in Shares and on the back of this have picked up a rudimentary knowledge which I will try to apply here.

PLEASE DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING HERE AS INVESTMENT ADVICE AS I AM BY NO MEANS QUALIFIED TO GIVE IT.


The only information I have to go on are the Betfair Results which can be freely obtained from here - These are the results for the Year ending 30 April 2010.

OK let's look at some facts:

Core Betfair Revenue (I am not interested in 'Other Investments' maybe that is a mistake?)

2010
306m

2009
291m

You don't need to be a Rocket Scientist to work out this is a poor growth rate year on year (~5%) for a company with such a lofty valuation.

In September 2008 Betfair introduced their Premium Charge so you could argue that the majority of this increase could simply be down to this additional charge. Where is the organic growth? Is there any?

Betfair Group Operating Profit

2010
18.4m

2009
44.5m

What? In the Prospectus that was released prior to Flotation this was apparently due to massive Infrastructure Investment and World Cup Marketing. OK fair enough. I assume this will bounce back quite nicely when the World Cup figures are included in the release next week? I'm not convinced. Also the Asset figure does not seem to have increased to reflect the Investment.

Current Assets - Cash and Cash equivalents

2010
151m

2009
133m

On the face of it, impressive. There is no doubt Betfair are good at generating Cash. Also it has to be said the Company has no Debt which is fantastic. The problem I have with this is they are only owed 22m but owe 115m - Does £151m in Cash seem quite so impressive now?

Look I have missed out loads (and probably don't understand a lot more) but can someone justify for me how this Company is valued at in excess of £1 Billion? Yes they have first mover advantage and hardly any viable competition - But are the best years behind them? By their own figures they have 3 Million 'Active' Accounts (A lot of these will be Multiple Account Holders)- Only so many of these will want to play on the Arcade or Casino, especially with the recent negative press they have had (This has even made Wiki now)

The Poker side of things could have been a massive growth part of their future, but I am pretty sure this will not have grown in the latest figures. Since the move to OnGame I will be amazed if they have even stabilised this side of the business, let alone grown it. (The root of my fall out with them and I don't think I am alone)

The caveat to everything above is if a new market opens up for them such as the US, then I can start to understand the vaulation.

Ok I started with time and I may add to this over the coming days, but my 4 year old has just decided my time has run out..........................

What do you all think? Am I being too simplistic? Am I going to look stupid in a few days time when the Half Year results are released? (No change there then)

Just to reiterate I am not looking for a fight here, just putting my opinions down on record.

I know I said it was going to be slow.................

But I didn't realise how slow to be honest.

Had a couple of small bets as you wll see but nothing major. Just really getting used to using Bet Angel and Betdaq to be honest.

The Jags aren't supposed to win in December are they? Well they do when I back against them.

I've also got some bets in place on some longer term markets, mainly around Liverpool to finish Top 4. Have you seen their upcoming fixtures? With Torres and Gerard back I can see them putting a bit of a run together myself and most of the Big Boys are playing each other over the same period. Might be good for a trade in any case.

Also had a silly Tenner on Curbishley to be the next Toon Boss. Looks like that is going down the pan. Why do I listen to silly rumours? BTW What a farce of a club, Mike Ashley needs shooting IMO where does he think the new Manager is going to take them? Top 4? Back to the Championship is my guess.

I'm still working on putting together some ratings on the Football - Hopefully this will be ready to go from January.

On the Poker front I have been putting in some hours on Rush to clear a couple of bonuses etc and it's not been going badly:

I seem to have adjusted to the nitty nature of the game. I guess time will tell whether it is sustainable or not.

Want to play some more STT and MTT's this month too.

Not missing Betfair at all yet but it's early days.........................

November Review and Goodbye Betfair

Well first off what a result for England in the First Test - Didn't look likely with a couple of days to go, but what momentum it gives them going in to the rest of the Series. Should be compulsive viewing for those that like the late nights. I'll stick to the Highlights I reckon - Means I won't get to see much of Mitchell Johnson but they are the breaks.................

Looks like a revamped Attack (in the loosest sense of the word) in any case for the Aussies in Adelaide, starting to panic a bit do you think? Love it.

Anyway back to November and what a dire month it was on the Sports Betting front as you can see below:

Made the mistake of listening to some Horse Racing Tipsters and overstaking to boot on them - still not to worry a lesson learned and not to be repeated. If you can't back your own judgement then who can you back?

Anyway on to December and things are going to be changing around these parts, the first thing is I am no longer going to be using Betfair in any shape or form.

After using them for the best part of 7 years the time has come to say 'Goodbye'. There are a number of reasons for this (mainly I have lost all faith in them) but the main ones are listed below:

Betfair Poker - Absolute disgrace of an operation. Struggle to operate any Promotion without it going wrong as can be seen from their own Forum. When things do go wrong - no ownership of a problem, just a cavalier attitude that smells of 'We couldn't give a damn'

Betfair Casino - Don't use it myself but more examples of 'piss up and brewery' in this link:

http://www.best-casino-poker.com/betfair-casino-screws-players.html

I am still not convinced about the long term prospects for them, their Sports Book is excellent. but the rest of it is a shambles to be honest. The shares have already begun their inevitable dive from a frankly ridiculous valuation and while they continue to treat their customers with contempt I think the ones that remain are going to see additional charges introduced in the short term. (Obvioulsy this is IMHO).

It does however mean I won't be using the excellent Geeks Toy any more, but for any that do use Betfair I don't apologise for giving them another plug. The guy who runs it and the software itself are First Class (Any chance of a version for Betdaq?)

Personally I am going to be using Betdaq for the next three months to see how I get on, I know the liquidity is not the same as Betfair, but on the majority of markets I get involved with there is not really much difference.

I am also going to trial Bet Angel Professional for Betdaq.

December is probably going to be quiet for me, but inspired by Mark Iverson and also Talkbet I am going to put some work in to Automating some thoughts I have had around trading some of the Football.

On to the Poker and one of the best things I have done is move To Full Tilt from Betfair. I'm still rubbish but getting better slowly......................

Good Luck All.